The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Tennessee

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Tennessee, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Tennessee, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 1,848,423 2,232,774 2,493,540 2,659,042 2,926,932 3,146,636
White 1,566,672 1,830,075 1,973,860 2,026,989 2,157,177 2,235,534
Black 260,262 329,785 386,960 436,448 496,064 544,907
Hispanic 9,036 30,493 72,650 112,410 160,803 219,597
Other 12,453 42,421 60,070 83,194 112,888 146,598
  Household Growth: Tennessee Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 6.6% 10.1% 7.5% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White 2.7% 6.4% 3.6% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 12.8% 13.7% 9.8% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 54.7% 43.1% 36.6% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 38.5% 35.7% 29.9% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Tennessee, by Age


 

Number of Households in Tennessee, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 1,206,129 210,528 8,226 11,841 360,543 49,734 810 612
2000 1,417,758 279,202 28,674 38,064 412,317 50,583 1,819 4,357
2010 1,482,770 329,190 69,140 53,050 491,090 57,770 3,510 7,020
2020 1,414,434 348,597 102,080 68,111 612,555 87,851 10,330 15,083
2030 1,381,761 366,375 140,025 88,966 775,415 129,689 20,778 23,922
2040 1,395,565 388,494 179,175 115,903 839,969 156,413 40,422 30,694
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Tennessee, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Tennessee Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 68.0% 69.9% 68.2% 66.9% 65.2% 63.5%
White 71.8% 74.4% 73.6% 74.1% 72.5% 70.7%
Black 47.4% 50.7% 47.7% 41.6% 41.7% 41.8%
Hispanic 47.7% 35.1% 40.0% 45.4% 49.6% 52.9%
Other 46.5% 52.0% 56.3% 52.2% 51.1% 50.1%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Tennessee and Nationwide

Tennessee Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 65.0% 66.8% 64.4% 61.1% 59.0% 57.0%
65 and older 78.7% 81.5% 81.2% 82.3% 78.1% 76.2%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Tennessee and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.