The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in New Mexico

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in New Mexico, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in New Mexico, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 540,381 677,676 791,380 802,833 809,218 785,816
White 317,556 362,777 392,270 358,657 323,051 272,281
Black 9,288 11,490 14,570 17,657 19,197 20,440
Hispanic 177,192 243,602 313,380 348,967 382,692 403,936
Other 36,345 59,807 71,160 77,553 84,278 89,160
  Household Growth: New Mexico Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 1.4% 0.8% −2.9% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White −8.6% −9.9% −15.7% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 21.2% 8.7% 6.5% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 11.4% 9.7% 5.6% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 9.0% 8.7% 5.8% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in New Mexico, by Age


 

Number of Households in New Mexico, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 242,814 7,986 149,880 31,335 74,742 1,302 27,312 5,010
2000 272,073 9,601 202,688 51,253 90,704 1,889 40,914 8,554
2010 280,250 12,100 259,300 59,400 112,020 2,470 54,080 11,760
2020 218,044 13,946 268,398 60,370 140,612 3,710 80,570 17,183
2030 162,983 13,638 271,486 60,835 160,068 5,560 111,205 23,444
2040 130,530 15,769 283,924 63,156 141,751 4,671 120,012 26,004
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in New Mexico, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

New Mexico Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 67.4% 70.0% 68.5% 67.6% 67.0% 66.1%
White 68.2% 71.9% 72.1% 73.6% 74.5% 74.1%
Black 41.1% 45.4% 45.4% 36.1% 35.7% 34.6%
Hispanic 67.5% 69.4% 66.2% 64.7% 63.5% 63.0%
Other 67.4% 66.1% 63.3% 60.1% 61.4% 62.7%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in New Mexico and Nationwide

New Mexico Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 64.0% 66.6% 64.5% 61.2% 59.3% 60.2%
65 and older 81.0% 82.9% 82.0% 82.4% 80.1% 76.1%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in New Mexico and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.