The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Missouri

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Missouri, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Missouri, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 1,954,136 2,194,315 2,375,580 2,470,652 2,590,492 2,660,045
White 1,731,541 1,882,524 1,990,470 2,001,784 2,046,176 2,037,691
Black 184,981 224,537 257,900 286,556 302,322 312,849
Hispanic 17,796 32,443 56,110 84,215 115,614 150,409
Other 19,818 54,811 71,100 98,097 126,380 159,097
  Household Growth: Missouri Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 4.0% 4.9% 2.7% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White 0.6% 2.2% −0.4% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 11.1% 5.5% 3.5% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 50.1% 37.3% 30.1% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 38.0% 28.8% 25.9% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Missouri, by Age


 

Number of Households in Missouri, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 1,299,209 148,420 15,905 18,242 432,332 36,561 1,891 1,576
2000 1,430,948 186,057 29,408 48,857 451,576 38,480 3,035 5,954
2010 1,496,910 214,680 51,160 62,680 493,560 43,220 4,950 8,420
2020 1,401,460 223,414 74,123 83,699 600,324 63,143 10,091 14,398
2030 1,300,546 220,724 98,571 104,249 745,630 81,597 17,043 22,132
2040 1,278,652 219,629 123,196 129,791 759,039 93,220 27,212 29,305
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Missouri, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Missouri Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 68.8% 70.3% 68.8% 67.4% 66.7% 65.9%
White 71.6% 73.9% 73.2% 73.2% 72.7% 72.2%
Black 45.3% 47.2% 42.5% 36.6% 36.9% 37.6%
Hispanic 55.9% 49.8% 49.5% 49.8% 50.2% 51.2%
Other 49.6% 53.1% 53.9% 54.7% 54.6% 54.0%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Missouri and Nationwide

Missouri Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 66.3% 67.7% 65.5% 62.8% 62.7% 63.6%
65 and older 76.5% 79.1% 79.7% 79.4% 74.6% 70.3%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Missouri and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.