The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Kansas

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Kansas, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Kansas, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 939,972 1,037,718 1,112,080 1,146,323 1,186,455 1,196,817
White 854,857 900,362 927,360 919,178 911,171 875,120
Black 46,010 54,047 61,430 61,714 63,004 62,066
Hispanic 23,620 48,244 77,790 107,445 140,413 172,821
Other 15,485 35,065 45,500 57,986 71,867 86,809
  Household Growth: Kansas Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 3.1% 3.5% 0.9% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White −0.9% −0.9% −4.0% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 0.5% 2.1% −1.5% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 38.1% 30.7% 23.1% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 27.4% 23.9% 20.8% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Kansas, by Age


 

Number of Households in Kansas, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 641,681 37,845 21,514 14,155 213,176 8,165 2,106 1,330
2000 684,320 46,435 44,705 31,744 216,042 7,612 3,539 3,321
2010 701,880 52,140 72,030 40,540 225,480 9,290 5,760 4,960
2020 644,699 48,528 96,565 50,262 274,479 13,187 10,880 7,724
2030 573,328 45,347 119,318 60,627 337,843 17,656 21,096 11,240
2040 542,457 42,775 140,387 72,517 332,662 19,291 32,435 14,292
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Kansas, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Kansas Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 68.1% 69.3% 67.8% 66.6% 65.7% 64.8%
White 70.2% 72.4% 71.6% 71.2% 70.4% 69.3%
Black 44.3% 44.1% 39.4% 35.4% 33.5% 32.4%
Hispanic 51.2% 50.5% 53.0% 53.6% 56.8% 60.0%
Other 46.3% 53.3% 54.0% 51.7% 51.9% 52.4%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Kansas and Nationwide

Kansas Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 64.1% 66.1% 64.7% 62.0% 61.3% 61.7%
65 and older 80.7% 80.4% 78.6% 79.2% 74.8% 70.9%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Kansas and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.