The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Idaho

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Idaho, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Idaho, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 357,960 469,630 579,380 668,649 798,264 918,984
White 338,008 429,242 513,670 575,851 666,997 745,731
Black 960 1,364 2,600 4,184 6,246 8,217
Hispanic 12,680 24,229 43,400 62,527 89,189 118,120
Other 6,312 14,795 19,710 26,087 35,832 46,916
  Household Growth: Idaho Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 15.4% 19.4% 15.1% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White 12.1% 15.8% 11.8% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 60.9% 49.3% 31.6% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 44.1% 42.6% 32.4% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 32.4% 37.4% 30.9% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Idaho, by Age


 

Number of Households in Idaho, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 261,948 808 11,788 5,620 76,060 152 892 692
2000 337,319 1,256 22,945 12,761 91,923 108 1,284 2,034
2010 392,020 2,450 40,180 16,950 121,650 150 3,220 2,760
2020 407,177 3,403 55,807 21,328 168,675 781 6,720 4,759
2030 434,753 4,627 77,645 27,421 232,244 1,618 11,544 8,411
2040 481,984 6,677 97,616 34,535 263,748 1,540 20,505 12,381
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Idaho, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Idaho Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 70.4% 72.4% 69.9% 71.9% 71.5% 70.7%
White 71.5% 74.0% 72.0% 74.7% 75.1% 74.9%
Black NA NA NA NA NA NA
Hispanic 50.6% 52.0% 52.9% 52.4% 52.9% 53.5%
Other 55.8% 60.0% 57.2% 62.4% 58.5% 56.1%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Idaho and Nationwide

Idaho Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 66.9% 69.4% 66.4% 65.9% 54.0% 37.9%
65 and older 82.9% 84.1% 82.3% 84.9% 84.0% 81.7%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Idaho and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.