The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Hawaii

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Hawaii, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Hawaii, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 356,296 403,316 455,250 449,988 438,727 419,012
White 133,485 121,142 141,480 132,771 121,417 105,806
Black 7,358 7,083 7,690 8,869 11,095 13,504
Hispanic 18,675 20,702 29,990 37,156 43,227 50,736
Other 196,778 254,389 276,090 271,193 262,988 248,965
  Household Growth: Hawaii Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total −1.2% −2.5% −4.5% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White −6.2% −8.6% −12.9% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 15.3% 25.1% 21.7% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 23.9% 16.3% 17.4% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other −1.8% −3.0% −5.3% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Hawaii, by Age


 

Number of Households in Hawaii, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 110,769 7,149 16,796 146,929 22,716 209 1,879 49,849
2000 97,565 6,736 18,739 187,724 23,577 347 1,963 66,665
2010 110,290 7,130 26,400 198,780 31,190 560 3,590 77,310
2020 85,573 7,811 31,792 175,724 47,198 1,058 5,363 95,469
2030 71,041 9,379 35,674 160,114 50,376 1,716 7,553 102,874
2040 66,489 11,630 41,614 154,965 39,318 1,874 9,123 94,000
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Hawaii, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Hawaii Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 53.9% 56.4% 57.7% 58.4% 58.4% 58.7%
White 44.5% 49.3% 53.3% 55.5% 55.5% 54.3%
Black 12.8% 17.1% 24.1% 31.2% 30.7% 30.7%
Hispanic 37.3% 34.5% 39.8% 38.4% 43.8% 49.8%
Other 63.4% 62.6% 62.8% 63.5% 63.3% 63.9%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Hawaii and Nationwide

Hawaii Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 49.1% 50.9% 52.3% 50.4% 50.6% 54.8%
65 and older 71.9% 74.6% 74.3% 74.6% 71.7% 66.0%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Hawaii and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.