The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Arkansas

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Arkansas, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Arkansas, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 889,553 1,042,470 1,147,070 1,169,419 1,221,132 1,256,619
White 755,187 853,204 900,880 882,690 884,591 869,270
Black 120,493 144,866 167,180 177,235 190,492 199,375
Hispanic 5,728 20,606 45,680 68,028 93,723 122,318
Other 8,145 23,794 33,330 41,466 52,326 65,656
  Household Growth: Arkansas Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 1.9% 4.4% 2.9% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White −2.0% 0.2% −1.7% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 6.0% 7.5% 4.7% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 48.9% 37.8% 30.5% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 24.4% 26.2% 25.5% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Arkansas, by Age


 

Number of Households in Arkansas, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 551,733 90,060 5,028 7,229 203,454 30,433 700 916
2000 635,327 118,876 19,561 21,055 217,877 25,990 1,045 2,739
2010 659,890 141,210 43,340 28,940 240,990 25,970 2,340 4,390
2020 598,054 140,989 63,391 34,815 284,636 36,246 4,637 6,651
2030 555,001 137,963 81,919 42,084 329,590 52,529 11,803 10,243
2040 543,361 141,249 99,871 52,609 325,909 58,126 22,447 13,048
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Arkansas, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Arkansas Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 69.5% 69.4% 67.0% 65.8% 65.0% 64.1%
White 72.4% 73.7% 72.4% 71.9% 71.8% 71.7%
Black 53.1% 49.9% 45.6% 42.4% 40.9% 38.9%
Hispanic 45.1% 39.5% 48.2% 51.3% 52.3% 52.9%
Other 56.1% 57.8% 54.2% 59.0% 60.4% 62.1%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Arkansas and Nationwide

Arkansas Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 66.0% 65.7% 62.7% 59.6% 58.9% 59.1%
65 and older 79.3% 81.2% 80.7% 81.4% 77.4% 74.3%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Arkansas and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.