The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Arizona

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Arizona, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Arizona, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 1,362,769 1,901,903 2,380,900 2,721,311 3,156,047 3,524,446
White 1,084,661 1,399,862 1,627,180 1,742,733 1,876,791 1,940,264
Black 34,442 52,024 88,500 112,914 152,512 195,352
Hispanic 180,605 331,314 500,790 647,870 849,320 1,051,068
Other 63,061 118,703 164,430 217,795 277,425 337,763
  Household Growth: Arizona Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 14.3% 16.0% 11.7% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White 7.1% 7.7% 3.4% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 27.6% 35.1% 28.1% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 29.4% 31.1% 23.8% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 32.5% 27.4% 21.7% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Arizona, by Age


 

Number of Households in Arizona, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 810,906 29,722 159,110 54,808 273,755 4,720 21,495 8,253
2000 1,024,097 45,457 298,801 104,360 375,765 6,567 32,513 14,343
2010 1,154,290 76,980 447,420 142,800 472,890 11,520 53,370 21,630
2020 1,081,190 91,453 550,768 178,787 661,543 21,461 97,102 39,008
2030 1,026,248 115,638 693,799 215,892 850,543 36,874 155,521 61,533
2040 1,017,824 147,494 816,397 254,667 922,439 47,858 234,671 83,096
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Arizona, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Arizona Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 64.2% 68.0% 66.0% 65.9% 64.7% 63.4%
White 66.8% 72.8% 71.8% 72.7% 72.4% 71.5%
Black 40.3% 44.4% 39.3% 35.4% 34.1% 33.9%
Hispanic 54.6% 54.9% 54.4% 55.1% 55.1% 55.5%
Other 60.3% 58.6% 58.3% 59.8% 59.1% 58.4%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Arizona and Nationwide

Arizona Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 59.4% 63.5% 60.9% 58.9% 56.9% 56.4%
65 and older 80.7% 83.6% 82.6% 82.1% 79.2% 75.4%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Arizona and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.