The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Alaska

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Alaska, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Alaska, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 188,445 221,405 258,050 254,952 250,244 237,455
White 151,257 166,858 188,030 176,345 162,320 139,859
Black 6,529 7,317 8,080 9,224 9,279 9,400
Hispanic 4,495 6,329 10,300 14,438 17,777 21,223
Other 26,164 40,901 51,640 54,946 60,867 66,973
  Household Growth: Alaska Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total −1.2% −1.8% −5.1% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White −6.2% −8.0% −13.8% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 14.2% 0.6% 1.3% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 40.2% 23.1% 19.4% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 6.4% 10.8% 10.0% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Alaska, by Age


 

Number of Households in Alaska, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 140,450 6,277 4,337 23,117 10,807 252 158 3,047
2000 149,762 6,881 6,144 35,739 17,096 436 185 5,162
2010 160,880 7,230 9,600 44,380 27,150 850 700 7,260
2020 132,217 7,545 12,487 42,788 44,128 1,679 1,951 12,157
2030 106,108 7,359 14,769 45,935 56,212 1,920 3,008 14,932
2040 90,563 7,440 17,361 51,417 49,296 1,960 3,862 15,556
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Alaska, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Alaska Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 55.9% 62.4% 63.1% 66.8% 66.8% 65.5%
White 57.8% 66.0% 67.3% 72.9% 75.5% 77.2%
Black 29.2% 34.1% 36.5% 24.2% 27.0% 29.1%
Hispanic 37.9% 44.0% 47.5% 58.3% 55.9% 51.5%
Other 54.9% 55.8% 54.9% 56.7% 53.0% 50.6%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Alaska and Nationwide

Alaska Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 54.3% 60.8% 60.7% 62.4% 60.9% 60.7%
65 and older 75.9% 76.1% 77.6% 73.9% 80.3% 76.9%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Alaska and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.