Will Changing Job Demands Boost Older Workers' Prospects?

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Abstract

Employment is now less physically demanding and less likely to entail difficult working conditions than before, a trend that might spur employment at older ages. However, the shift to a knowledge-based economy has increased cognitive demands and placed a premium on mastering the latest technical skills. Between 1971 and 2006 the share of workers in cognitively demanding jobs (requiring such skills as reasoning, writing, and decisionmaking) increased from 25.7 to 34.8 percent. This development may curtail opportunities for older workers with limited education or those who lack recent training.

Introduction

The ongoing shift from a manufacturing-dominated economy to one based on knowledge and services has moved more and more jobs out of factories and into offices, reducing the need for backbreaking work. With fewer jobs relying on physical labor, more people may be able to continue working at older ages—a choice that can boost government finances as well as their own incomes. But the new workplace often makes other demands on workers, such as the need to adapt to and keep up with new technology, that might discourage longer work lives, especially for those with limited education. Some older workers may not be willing to cope with the high stress that seems increasingly common in many jobs.

This brief describes trends in job demands since the early 1970s and how they affect work at older ages. We estimate the share of the workforce facing physical, cognitive, and other job demands by linking occupational characteristics compiled by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration to workers in the 1971 and 2006 Current Population Surveys.1 The results show that physical workplace demands have declined over the past 35 years, but cognitive demands have surged.

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