Adding Employer Contributions to Health Insurance to Social Security's Earnings and Tax Base (Research Report)Karen E. Smith
, Eric Toder
Including employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) in taxable compensation would increase income and payroll tax receipts, but would also increase Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) benefits by adding ESI to the OASDI earnings base. The increased present value of OASDI benefits from including ESI in the wage base in 2014 would offset about 22 percent of increased income and payroll taxes, 57 percent of increased payroll taxes, and 72 percent of increased OASDI taxes. Both taxes and benefits as a share of income would increase between the bottom and middle quintiles and then decline for higher income taxpayers.
Validating Longitudinal Earnings in Dynamic Microsimulation Models: The Role of Outliers (Research Report)Melissa M. Favreault
|Posted: May 01, 2014||Availability: HTML | PDF|
, Owen Haaga
Rapid growth in the earnings of the highest earners over the past 25 years has contributed to strains on Social Security’s finances and made projecting lifetime earnings on a year-by-year basis-already a complicated technical problem-even more challenging. This project uses descriptive techniques and high-quality administrative data matched to household surveys to explore questions about the changing earnings distribution. We describe high earners' characteristics, both at a point in time and over longer periods (from 1983 through 2010). We then evaluate how well SSA's MINT7 model projects inequality in the earnings distribution and the long-term characteristics of earnings paths.
Social Security and Medicare Taxes and Benefits over a Lifetime (Fact Sheet / Data at a Glance)C. Eugene Steuerle
|Posted: November 15, 2013||Availability: HTML | PDF|
, Caleb Quakenbush
These tables update to 2013 previous estimates of the lifetime value of Social Security and Medicare benefits and taxes for typical workers in different generations at various earning levels based on new estimates of the Social Security Actuary. The "lifetime value of taxes" is based upon the value of accumulated taxes, as if those taxes were put into an account that earned a 2 percent real rate of return (that is, 2 percent plus inflation). The "lifetime value of benefits" represents the amount needed in an account (also earning a 2 percent real interest rate) to pay for those benefits. All amounts are presented in constant 2013 dollars.
Has Social Security Redistributed to Whites from People of Color? (Research Report)Caleb Quakenbush
|Posted: November 12, 2013||Availability: HTML | PDF|
, Karen E. Smith
, C. Eugene Steuerle
This brief considers how Social Security’s many benefit and tax features have redistributed across groups over time. Using Current Population Survey data from 1970 through 1994 and microsimulation projections from the Urban Institute’s DYNASIM3 model, we find that for many decades, Social Security redistributed from blacks, Hispanics, and other people of color, to whites. These transfers will likely to continue in future decades. Our findings suggest that future reforms that place the burden of Social Security reform solely on younger, more diverse generations may have undesired distributional consequences if the aim of the program is to provide greater relative protections to more vulnerable groups.
How Did the Great Recession Affect Social Security Claiming? (Policy Briefs/Retirement Project Brief Series)Richard W. Johnson
|Posted: November 07, 2013||Availability: HTML | PDF|
, Karen E. Smith
, Owen Haaga
Social Security retirement claiming grew in 2009 as unemployment soared. The increase was modest, however, because unemployment growth at older ages was largely offset by growth in the number of older adults choosing to work longer. Half of women and more than half of men now wait until after age 62 to claim their retirement benefits, the largest proportions in decades. The recent increase in Social Security's full retirement age has prompted many retirees to wait at least until they turn 66 years old to begin collecting benefits, as a quarter of men now claim at that age or later.
|Posted: July 29, 2013||Availability: HTML | PDF|