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Publications by Gordon Mermin for Retirement Policy

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More about Gordon Mermin's areas of expertise can be found on this Urban Institute expert's page.

One-quarter of workers ages 51 to 55 develop work disabilities before age 62. Disabilities often force people to curtail their work hours, derailing retirement preparations. However, protections built into Social Security, including disability and spouse benefits and the system's tilt toward workers with low lifetime earnings, cushion the impact of midlife health problems. After other factors are controlled for, the onset of health-related work limitations between ages 51 and 61 reduces Social Security retirement benefits at ages 63 to 67 by only about 2 percent, much less than the impact on other retirement savings.

Employment is now less physically demanding and less likely to entail difficult working conditions than before, a trend that might spur employment at older ages. However, the shift to a knowledge-based economy has increased cognitive demands and placed a premium on mastering the latest technical skills. Between 1971 and 2006 the share of workers in cognitively demanding jobs (requiring such skills as reasoning, writing, and decisionmaking) increased from 25.7 to 34.8 percent. This development may curtail opportunities for older workers with limited education or those who lack recent training.

Boomers will probably want to work longer than earlier cohorts, but their continued work requires that employers hire and retain them. Employers value older workers for their maturity, experience and work ethic, but worry about out of date skills and high costs. Slower overall labor supply growth will increase demand for older workers and occupations with higher shares of older workers will increase modestly as a share of all jobs. Future jobs will require less physical demands and more cognitive and interpersonal skills, trends that favor educated older workers, but job opportunities for less educated older workers may remain limited.

Increasing older people's employment rates could reduce the economic pressures of an aging population, and many older adults say they want to delay retirement. Yet, numerous public policies and private practices continue to encourage early retirement. The Urban Institute, with support from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, sponsored an October 2007 roundtable to examine the value of older adults' work. Researchers, practitioners, employers, and policymakers discussed the potential supply of and demand for older workers, the benefits of working longer, barriers to continued employment, and policy solutions to encourage work at older ages. This document summarizes the issues and discussion.

About 7 percent of American workers held highly physically demanding jobs in 2006, and 35 percent held highly cognitively demanding jobs. The share of the workforce in physically demanding jobs fell by about one-sixth between 1971 and 2006, while the share in cognitively demanding jobs increased by more than one-third. Stressful occupations also grew rapidly over the past 35 years. The decline in physically demanding occupations will likely improve employment prospects for older adults, but the growth in cognitive demands may limit options for some older people, especially those with limited education.

A great way to assess how well adults have accumulated wealth is to look at their finances in the years shortly before they retire. We show wealth among households with an adult age 57–61 in 2004, using the Health and Retirement Study. This wealth snapshot highlights the extraordinary importance of Social Security, traditional pensions, and owner-occupied housing for typical near-retiree households today, which together comprise nearly four-fifths of wealth for middle quintile households on the verge of retirement.

About one-quarter of workers age 51 to 55 in 1992 developed health-related work limitations and about one-fifth were laid off from their jobs before age 62. Although late-career health and employment shocks often derail retirement savings plans, Social Security’s disability insurance, spouse and survivor benefits, and progressive benefit formula provide important protections. In fact, health shocks increase Social Security's lifetime value, primarily because the system’s disability insurance allows some disabled workers to collect benefits before age 62. However, if the system’s disability insurance program did not exist, the onset of health-related work limitations would substantially reduce Social Security wealth.

Older adults' employment is attracting attention as many baby boomers approach traditional retirement ages. This fact sheet examines employers' current attitudes toward older workers and the likely future demand for their services.

For the first time in history, many older Americans will likely retire with large stockpiles of money and will have to determine how to carefully manage these assets. Our study results suggest that converting retirement wealth into an annuity that guarantees a lifetime income may help retirees manage their spending and ensure they will not outlive their savings. This brief is related to the longer paper "Annuitized Wealth and Consumption at Older Ages."

The growing popularity of Individual Retirement Accounts and defined contribution (DC) pension plans, which generally provide lump sum payments instead of annuities, will likely affect spending at older ages. Retirees with little annuitized wealth risk spending too quickly and depleting their assets before they die, or spending too slowly and not enjoying as comfortable a retirement as they could afford. This study finds that older adults with little annuitized wealth spend more, and implies that the shift from defined benefit pensions to DC pensions or privatizing Social Security without requiring annuitization may promote even further spending of retirement resources.

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