Publications by Richard W. Johnson for Retirement Policy

As unemployment surged during the Great Recession and subsequent recovery, older workers were less likely than their younger counterparts to lose their jobs. However, unemployed workers in their fifties were about a fifth less likely than those age 25 to 34 to become reemployed between 2008 and 2011, and they experienced steep wage losses. Median hourly earnings for reemployed workers age 51 to 61 were 21 percent lower on the new job than the prelayoff job, compared with only 7 percent for those age 25 to 34. These declines may reflect lost productivity or employer reluctance to hire older workers.

The recession has increased joblessness among older Americans. These graphs and tables report unemployment rates and how they have varied by age, sex, race, and education since 2007.

After peaking in the wake of the Great Recession, Social Security retirement and disability awards fell in 2011 as the economy improved. Only 27 percent of Americans age 62 and older began collecting retirement benefits that year, the lowest take-up rate since 1976. Disability applications and awards remained unusually high, however. In 2011, 18.9 insured workers per 1,000 applied for Social Security disability benefits, more than in any year except 2010. The surge in disability applications and awards exacerbated Social Security’s financial problems.

Social Security claiming behavior matters because early claimants receive lower monthly benefits for the rest of their lives. Early claiming fell over the past decade, after increasing over the previous 10 years. However, high unemployment encourages early claiming by less-educated men. A 1 percentage point increase in the state unemployment rate is associated with a 0.4 percentage point increase in the monthly claiming probability by men who never attended college, implying that the Great Recession boosted their claiming rates by about 40 percent. In contrast, claiming behavior by women and well-educated men is not significantly correlated with the unemployment rate.

The lackluster economy, eroding traditional pensions, and volatile stock market suggest that baby boomers - those born between 1945 and 1965 - face increasingly uncertain retirements. Our projections show that lower - and moderate-income boomers will continue to rely on Social Security for most of their retirement income. While the projections reflect some good news - women will reap the rewards of working and earning more than previous generations - they also raise alarms. Between 30 and 40 percent of boomers will not have enough income at age 70 to replace 75 percent of their preretirement earnings, a common standard for measuring retirement income adequacy.

With the demise of the Community Living Assistance Services and Supports (CLASS) Act, Program on Retirement Policy Director Richard Johnson talks us through ways it could be revitalized, new policies that could boost participation in the private market, and public-private options that could help achieve higher rates of coverage.

It appears the Obama administration is abandoning the Community Living Assistance Services and Supports (CLASS) Act, a program included in the Affordable Care Act that aimed to make long-term health care more affordable and accessible for most Americans. In this first video in a two-part Urban Institute package, Program on Retirement Policy Director Richard Johnson walks us through CLASS's aims and design, why greater access to long-term care is needed, and where the program ran into problems.

The number of people of color in the workforce will soar in coming decades as the older population expands, grows more diverse, and works longer. However, African Americans and Hispanics age 50 and older face substantial workplace challenges, including relatively low earnings, high unemployment, and limited access to self-employment. Older Asians fare better, but still lag behind their non-Hispanic white counterparts along many dimensions. This data brief shows how recent trends in labor force participation, earnings, self-employment, and unemployment vary by race and Hispanic origin for adults age 50 and older.

Automatic individual retirement accounts (IRAs) could significantly boost retirement savings for millions of low- and moderate-wage workers. A proposal embraced by the Obama administration would require most employers that do not offer retirement plans to establish IRAs for their employees and automatically direct a portion of pay into the accounts, unless employees opt out. Our results, based on the Urban Institute's microsimulation model, show that automatic IRAs would boost retirement incomes for as many as half of low-income retirees and three-fifths of moderate-income retirees. For both groups, mean age-70 incomes among those who gain would increase by nearly a fifth.

The financial impact of the 2007–2009 recession will reverberate into retirement for many working families, even those who did not lose their jobs. Average wages grew very slowly during the downturn, reducing lifetime earnings. Lower earnings leave less income to set aside for retirement and depress future Social Security and pension incomes. Although unusually strong wage growth in coming years could bail out younger workers, there is little recourse for workers now approaching traditional retirement ages. For those age 55 to 59 in 2008, the Great Recession will reduce average age-70 incomes by 5 percent.

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