Publications by Rudolph G. Penner for Retirement Policy

Earlier this month Texas Gov. Rick Perry made waves when he called Social Security a Ponzi scheme during a Republican Party presidential debate, an assertion he originally made in his 2010 autobiography "Fed Up." In this video Rudolph G. Penner - an Institute Fellow at the Program on Retirement Policy and a former director of the Congressional Budget Office - explains what a Ponzi scheme is, how it compares with Social Security, and what can be done to fix the program's underlying structural problems.

Medicare Part B and Part D premiums will soon increase for most beneficiaries, likely consuming much of the cost-of-living increase in their Social Security benefits. Part B premiums do not vary with affordability except for the relatively few single beneficiaries with annual incomes exceeding $85,000 and the relatively few married beneficiaries with incomes exceeding $170,000. Consequently, premium levels and increases are often burdensome at low income levels. Rising health care costs leave the entire population with less to spend on nonhealth goods and services, and older adults are affected most because so much of their income goes to health care.

The United States faces a dire budget problem, largely the result of the aging of the population and soaring health costs. The president's National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform and the Bipartisan Policy Center's Debt Reduction Task Force both agree that Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid reforms are necessary, although health costs are the far greater problem. They also recommend restructuring the personal and corporate tax systems. These commissions' efforts show that reasonable policy packages can get bipartisan support even in an intensely partisan era.

Based on low inflation data for fiscal 2010, Social Security beneficiaries won't receive a cost-of-living adjustment for fiscal 2011. Rudolph G. Penner, an institute fellow and a former director of the Congressional Budget Office, explains how the Bureau of Labor Statistics measures inflation, the shortcomings of that index, and what alternative measures are out there.

This brief examines different price indices that might be used to adjust Social Security benefits for changes in the cost of living. The currently used consumer price index for wage and clerical workers (CPI-W) is probably biased upward. A new experimental "chain" index removes some of the upward bias and therefore rises more slowly. Using it would help solve some of Social Security's long-run financial problems. Another candidate is an experimental index designed to reflect the purchases of the elderly. Largely because it heavily weights health costs, it is likely to rise faster than the CPI-W.

Although the shift from defined benefit pension plans to defined contribution plans raises concerns that some retirees may outlive their assets, most spend their wealth cautiously. High income retirees continue to accumulate wealth until age 85. Net worth for middle-income retirees begins declining after age 70, but only very slowly. Low-income retirees never accumulate much wealth and spend their limited assets quickly, however, leaving most dependent on Social Security.

Institute Fellow Rudy Penner describes how the U.S. budget is prepared by the executive branch and Congress, and how it then is implemented by the executive branch. The budget preparation process could be improved, Penner asserts, but budget implementation works smoothly and efficiently. The severe long-run budget problem the country faces is caused by only three spending programs: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. All are growing faster than the economy, and there is strong opposition against raising tax burdens. Changes are suggested for the budget process so that it is better suited for dealing with this long-run problem.

We use the Health and Retirement Study to investigate household assets at older ages. We find a notable increase in the net worth of older households between 1998 and 2006, with most of the growth due to housing. The age pattern of asset accumulation and decumulation varies considerably by income. High-income seniors increase assets at older ages. Middle-income seniors reduce assets in retirement, but at a rate that will not deplete assets within their expected life. Low-income seniors spend their financial assets at a rate that will mostly deplete them, leaving only Social Security and defined-benefit pensions at older ages.

The U.S. budget is on an unsustainable path. That is because Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, which together constituted almost one half of noninterest spending before the recent stimulus plan, are all growing faster than tax revenues. If these programs are not reformed, tax burdens raised, or other spending decimated, deficits and the national debt will explode. It is difficult to imagine solving the entire budget problem by slowing spending growth, because benefits would then be far below those previously promised. It is equally unlikely that tax increases could solve the whole problem because the tax burden would then be so far above any ever experienced by Americans. To the extent that tax burdens are to be increased, there are three options. Tax rates could be raised in the existing system, but that would be extremely inefficient. Tax reform might raise revenues more efficiently, but that is excruciatingly difficult politically. That leaves the possibility of a brand new tax and a VAT is a very likely candidate.

The article considers special federal tax provisions affecting the elderly. It examines the taxation of Social Security, private retirement accounts, estate taxation and other provisions of the law that mention age. It also analyzes how the elderly might be affected by tax increases necessitated by the dismal long-run budget outlook. In particular, it looks at the possibility that we shall become more reliant on consumption taxes.

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