Publications by Melissa M. Favreault for Retirement Policy

The lackluster economy, eroding traditional pensions, and volatile stock market suggest that baby boomers - those born between 1945 and 1965 - face increasingly uncertain retirements. Our projections show that lower - and moderate-income boomers will continue to rely on Social Security for most of their retirement income. While the projections reflect some good news - women will reap the rewards of working and earning more than previous generations - they also raise alarms. Between 30 and 40 percent of boomers will not have enough income at age 70 to replace 75 percent of their preretirement earnings, a common standard for measuring retirement income adequacy.

A little more than a year ago, the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform produced a report that proposed restructuring Social Security. However, the commission failed to get the supermajority needed to recommend the plan to Congress. While some in the media and on the political scene called the report a useful starting point, no action was taken to reshape Social Security in 2011. With presidential and congressional elections coming in November, the topic is sure to heat back up. This video features Melissa Favreault, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute's Program on Retirement Policy, discussing the ways the Bowles-Simpson plan would change Social Security, who would be affected the most, and what the timeframe is for taking action.

Using the Dynamic Simulation of Income Model, we project how Social Security benefits and payroll taxes would change were Congress to enact the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform’s proposal. We show benefits at several points in time and relative to pre-retirement income, a low-income standard, and lifetime payroll tax contributions. The proposal’s projected effects are particularly deep relative to current law scheduled for those reaching retirement in several decades. Projected benefit reductions relate closely to lifetime earnings: Lower earners are largely shielded, higher earners face significant reductions. Projections are sensitive to workers’ assumed responses to certain proposal provisions.

Immigration is transforming the U.S. labor force with important consequences for Social Security's adequacy and finances. Using longitudinal data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation matched to administrative data on lifetime earnings and benefit receipt, we measure the extent to which nonnatives' lifetime earning patterns, payroll taxes paid, benefits received, and total incomes differ from those for the U.S.-born population. We consider other outcomes important to retirement security, like health status, marital status, and financial wealth. We also compare various immigrant groups with one another. Our findings stress heterogeneity in labor force and Social Security experiences among immigrants.

Low Social Security benefits are strongly related to individual characteristics and earnings histories. These associations suggest ways of shoring up Social Security and adopting other policies to help low-wage, low-skilled workers achieve more labor market success and greater retirement security. Social Security enhancements to aid beneficiaries with intermittent histories include caregiver credits or a minimum benefit that integrates caregiving, unemployment, and disability credits. To meet long-term, low-wage workers' needs, policymakers could adjust Social Security's bend points or replacement percentages; create a new minimum benefit; or adjust current law's special minimum benefit so it provides support greater than the poverty level.

We use data from the Health and Retirement Study linked to administrative data on earnings and benefits to determine why some workers end up with low Social Security benefits in retirement. Several characteristics are associated with family benefits of less than poverty. Racial disparities are pronounced. Women's risk is marked, especially for unmarried women, with caregiving an important contributor to low-benefit risk. Less-educated workers are also vulnerable, sometimes even when they have worked long careers. Workers with health problems and disabled workers-especially those disabled early in the career-are comparatively likely to have family benefits of less than poverty.

Increasing Social Security's retirement age would promote work at older ages, improve the system's solvency by shortening retirements and reducing lifetime benefits, and better target benefits to the oldest Americans. It could, however, create hardship for workers with health problems unless Congress improves the disability safety net. This fact sheet reports key data points in the arguments for and against increasing the retirement age.

Questions persist about how well Social Security Disability Insurance, workers' compensation, Supplemental Security Income, and veterans' benefits protect people who are unable to work. This study examines disability benefit receipt, income, and poverty status for a sample of Americans as they age. The results underscore the precarious financial state of most people approaching traditional retirement age with disabilities. Fewer than half of people who meet our disability criteria ever receive disability benefits in their fifties or early sixties. Poverty rates for those who do are more than three times as high after benefit receipt than before disability onset.

A patchwork of public programs, including Social Security Disability Insurance, workers’ compensation, Supplemental Security Income, and veterans’ benefits, provides income supports to people with health problems who are unable to work. Yet, many Americans who develop disabilities in their fifties or early sixties fall into poverty. With millions of boomers entering their sixties—when work disability rates peak—it’s time to fix the social insurance safety net for disabled workers.

I argue that Social Security benefits for long-term, low-wage workers are modest and need to be increased. There are many ways to bolster benefits for low-income retirees, each with strengths and weaknesses, so technical details of each proposal will determine its effectiveness. Any Social Security reform package will include multiple provisions that interact with one another. Certain provisions to help low-earners may be more or less desirable depending on a package's other components. Finally, some low-income older and disabled Americans are beyond Social Security's reach. To help them, Congress should consider expanding the Supplemental Security Income program.

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