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Publications by Barbara Butrica for Retirement Policy

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More about Barbara Butrica's areas of expertise can be found on this Urban Institute expert's page.

Urban Institute projections suggest the stock market collapse will have small effects on most Americans' retirement incomes. It's estimated that 37 percent of Americans born between 1941 and 1965 owned no stocks when the market crashed in 2008 and that income from assets will account for a small share of retirement income, even for those with stocks. For most retirees, Social Security provides the majority of income. Had Social Security been invested in private accounts with equities, the impact of the crash would have been much larger—positive or negative, depending on one's birth cohort and on future market performance.

The one-third drop in the S&P 500 index between year-end 2007 and 2008 raises concerns about retirement security since Americans now hold more equities through their retirement plans. Those near retirement will fare the worst because they have no time to recoup their losses. Midcareer workers will fare better because they have more time to rebuild their wealth. They may even gain income if they buy stocks at low prices and get above-average rates of return. High-income groups will be the most affected because they are most likely to have financial assets and to be invested in the stock market.

High out-of-pocket health care costs may have serious repercussions for older people and their families. This paper examines the impact of health problems at older ages on out-of-pocket health care spending and other types of expenditures. The results show that medical conditions increase health spending, particularly for households ages 51 to 64, but do not generally reduce nonhealth spending. Health conditions do, however, reduce nonhealth spending for low-income households ages 51 to 64, suggesting that holes in the health safety net before the Medicare eligibility age force some low-income people to lower their living standards to cover medical expenses.

Over the last three decades there has been a steady shift from DB to DC pensions. The Pension Protection Act of 2006 may accelerate this trend. This paper examines the impact of an accelerated freeze on the retirement income of boomers. Simulations suggest that such a scenario would produce more losers than winners and reduce average retirement incomes. Income changes will be substantial among high-income workers, who have the highest DB coverage and pension incomes. Late boomers will experience the largest impacts, as they lose their high DB accrual years and have inadequate time to accumulate DC wealth before retirement.

Low-wage workers find it difficult to save for retirement. Without savings, they will have to rely on Social Security and pensions. Yet these income sources are based on earnings, which means that low-wage workers will have lower Social Security and pension benefits than higher-wage workers. This brief assesses whether boomers with low earnings between ages 22 and 62 are destined for low income at age 67. We find that nearly two-thirds of this group will end up with low income at retirement, but more than one-third will manage to defy the odds and escape being among the lowest-income older Americans.

This study uses the Urban Institute's DYNASIM model to project wealth and income at retirement for low-income boomers. The findings suggest that most with low lifetime earnings will also have low incomes at older ages unless they either continue working or move in with others who help support them financially. Saving more, working more consistently over their lifetime, and delaying retirement is projected to improve outcomes for low-earning boomers, but none of these actions will increase retirement living standards dramatically.

The Census Bureau’s official poverty measure no longer reflects the true resources or needs of adults age 65 and older. Recent consumption data show that older adults generally require more to cover their basic needs and economic data show that older adults have more resources than are reflected in the official poverty measure. This paper shows the sensitivity of poverty rates for older adults to alternative measures of consumption needs and income resources. The alternative measures all show that number of older adults living in poverty is greater than the official measure indicates.

People think of retirement security as balancing on a three-legged stool, with income from assets, private pensions, and Social Security as the legs. However, despite growing awareness about the importance of saving for retirement, many elderly people cannot rely on their financial assets. According to data from the 2004 Health and Retirement Study, lower-income adults age 65 and older rely less on income from assets and traditional defined-benefit pensions than their higher-income counterparts. Instead, older adults with lower income rely primarily on Social Security and public transfers for their retirement security.

Income tax provisions affect the buildup of retirement assets during workers' careers and after-tax income following retirement. This paper uses the Urban Institute's DYNASIM model to simulate how potential changes in the tax treatment of retirement saving, Social Security benefits, and income from assets outside retirement accounts may affect boomers' retirement incomes. Changes in the income thresholds for taxing Social Security benefits have the largest impact on middle-income boomers, while changes in contribution limits for retirement saving plans and tax rates on capital gains and dividends have the largest impact on the highest-income boomers.

This paper uses data from the 2004 Health and Retirement Study to demonstrate how the poverty rate of adults 65 and older changes using alternative resource and threshold measures. Results show that alternative poverty measures that account for health spending produce higher poverty rates than the official measure, even those that include the value of housing and financial assets. Poverty remains concentrated among singles (disproportionately women), blacks and Hispanics, and adults 85 and older regardless of how it is measured because these populations have relatively little housing equity or financial assets.

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