Social Security

It’s not exactly news — to Congress, the White House, and now many outside of elite circles — that the federal budget is out of control. Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid make up more than 40 percent of spending other than interest during a normal year and all are growing faster than the economy and tax revenues. Yet, Congress has kept the overall tax burden remarkably constant as a share of gross domestic product for most of the past 50 years. Together, these factors lead to sky-high deficits, an exploding national debt, and the specter of economic collapse.

Institute Fellow Rudy Penner describes how the U.S. budget is prepared by the executive branch and Congress, and how it then is implemented by the executive branch. The budget preparation process could be improved, Penner asserts, but budget implementation works smoothly and efficiently. The severe long-run budget problem the country faces is caused by only three spending programs: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. All are growing faster than the economy, and there is strong opposition against raising tax burdens. Changes are suggested for the budget process so that it is better suited for dealing with this long-run problem.

Record numbers of older men and women began collecting Social Security benefits in 2009. New awards surged last year partly because the age-62 population grew rapidly. More importantly, older Americans were much more likely to claim Social Security in 2009 than recent previous years, probably because many seniors were unable to find work. Social Security benefits provide an important safety net for unemployed older adults, but early claimants receive permanently reduced benefits, threatening their future economic well-being.

The sharp decline in the stock market in 2008 placed the retirement security of many Americans at risk. Although the market has rebounded this year after bottoming out in March 2009, as of mid-October 2009 the S&P 500 Index remained 30 percent below its peak level two years earlier. This brief simulates the impact of the 2008 stock market crash on future retirement savings under alternative scenarios. The results show that by delaying retirement one additional year, many mid- and late-career workers could increase their income at age 67 enough to offset some or all of their stock market losses.

This presentation to the National Tax Association at a plenary session covers many of the aspect of our current fiscal dilemma: the squeeze on important budget functions, the long-term potential deficits, the rise and fall of domestic discretionary spending, and the impact of the ability of voters to choose the type of government they want.