Economic Well-Being

The lackluster economy, eroding traditional pensions, and volatile stock market suggest that baby boomers - those born between 1945 and 1965 - face increasingly uncertain retirements. Our projections show that lower - and moderate-income boomers will continue to rely on Social Security for most of their retirement income. While the projections reflect some good news - women will reap the rewards of working and earning more than previous generations - they also raise alarms. Between 30 and 40 percent of boomers will not have enough income at age 70 to replace 75 percent of their preretirement earnings, a common standard for measuring retirement income adequacy.

This report describes the work the Urban Institute performed to generate the Model of Income in the Near Term, Version 6 (MINT6). MINT is a tool developed for the Social Security Administration (SSA) to analyze the distributional consequences of Social Security reform proposals. MINT is a micro-level data file of individuals born between 1926 and 2075. It starts with a rich set of income and demographic characteristics from the 2001 and 2004 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) data linked to SSA data on earnings and benefits. MINT then projects these characteristics until death or the year 2099.

The retirement savings of American households took a big hit when the stock market crashed in 2008. Recently, however, a good portion of these losses has been reversed. This fact sheet follows trends in retirement account balances since the beginning of 2005.

This report updates and extends the Economic Security Index (ESI), an integrated measure of the share of Americans who experience large declines in their "available household income"-their household income after paying for medical care and servicing their financial debts. Americans are still coming to grips with the effects of the "Great Recession" on their economic security. Despite a number of valuable examinations of the downturn's effects, surprisingly little is known about the dynamic experiences of Americans as their economic standing has changed from year to year amid a turbulent economy. This report fills this gap.

Using the Dynamic Simulation of Income Model, we project how Social Security benefits and payroll taxes would change were Congress to enact the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform’s proposal. We show benefits at several points in time and relative to pre-retirement income, a low-income standard, and lifetime payroll tax contributions. The proposal’s projected effects are particularly deep relative to current law scheduled for those reaching retirement in several decades. Projected benefit reductions relate closely to lifetime earnings: Lower earners are largely shielded, higher earners face significant reductions. Projections are sensitive to workers’ assumed responses to certain proposal provisions.

With the demise of the Community Living Assistance Services and Supports (CLASS) Act, Program on Retirement Policy Director Richard Johnson talks us through ways it could be revitalized, new policies that could boost participation in the private market, and public-private options that could help achieve higher rates of coverage.

In this commentary for New York Times' Room for Debate, Institute fellow Sheila Zedlewski explains that many of the nation's 41 million seniors live in or very near poverty and many have assets mostly tied up in their houses. Policy makers must be ever mindful of that diversity when considering changes in policy that would affect retirement income security.

Immigration is transforming the U.S. labor force with important consequences for Social Security's adequacy and finances. Using longitudinal data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation matched to administrative data on lifetime earnings and benefit receipt, we measure the extent to which nonnatives' lifetime earning patterns, payroll taxes paid, benefits received, and total incomes differ from those for the U.S.-born population. We consider other outcomes important to retirement security, like health status, marital status, and financial wealth. We also compare various immigrant groups with one another. Our findings stress heterogeneity in labor force and Social Security experiences among immigrants.