Modeling Income in the Near Term - Projections of Retirement Income Through 2020 for the 1931-60 Birth Cohorts

Research Report

Modeling Income in the Near Term - Projections of Retirement Income Through 2020 for the 1931-60 Birth Cohorts

Final Report

Abstract

The Division of Policy Evaluation (DPE) at the Social Security Administration (SSA) is developing a model to evaluate the distributional effects of Social Security policy changes. The model is referred to as Modeling Income in the Near Term, or MINT. This technical report describes the results of development work on the MINT model performed under contract to SSA by the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution. The report discusses the methods used to project future incomes, presents regression results for equations explaining the path of different sources of income, and displays tables that summarize the results of projections. It discusses how income in retirement is projected to change for younger cohorts, relative to birth cohorts retiring in the 1990s, and discusses the sources of projected changes in the distribution of income of retirees.

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