Research evidence of pre-reform job lock and empirical research demonstrating a significant increase in self-employment under health care reforms or availability of Medicare benefits, strongly suggests that self-employment will increase as a consequence of full implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Taking into account the most recent findings in the economic literature on this topic, we make a rough estimate that the number of self-employed people will be 1.5 million higher under the ACA than it would otherwise have been. Relative increases in self-employment will vary across states as a function of pre-ACA market reforms already in place.
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