No. 5 in The "Neighborhood Change in Urban America" Series
The nonpartisan Urban Institute publishes studies, reports, and books on timely topics worthy of public consideration. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
The text below is an excerpt from the complete document. Read the full paper in PDF format.
Abstract
This brief compares metropolitan census tracts that improved with respect to poverty in the 1990s (poverty rate decreased by 5 percentage points or more) with those that worsened (poverty rate increased by 5 points or more); looking at the racial composition of both types and how the shares in both types varied in different locations within metropolitan areas and in different types of metropolitan areas nationally. It finds that while trends by these measures were considerably more favorable than in the 1980s, the 1990s still saw a mix of improving and worsening neighborhoods almost everywhere, warranting local action to address the challenges that both imply.
Introduction
America’s urban neighborhoods generally fared better in the 1990s than they had over the preceding decade, but patterns of improvement and decline were complex and in many ways defied conventional wisdom. Traditional categorizations (e.g., highpoverty versus low-poverty, weak markets versus strong markets) are much too simple to provide sound guides for policy. Local officials everywhere need to learn how to vary their strategies in response to different neighborhood circumstances and trajectories likely to exist in their cities.
In this analysis, we divide census tracts in the 100 largest metropolitan areas into three groups based on how their poverty rates changed over a decade: improved (poverty rate decreased by 5 percentage points or more), worsened (rate increased by 5 points or more), and remained stable (rate changed by less than 5 points in either direction).
- In the 1990s, a larger share of all tracts worsened (15 percent) than improved (11 percent), but this represented a much more positive result than that of the 1980s, when 19 percent worsened and only 8 percent improved.
- Patterns of change in neighborhoods where poverty is concentrated (mostly in the central cities) have been much more volatile than in those that are less poor. In the 1990s, only 45 percent of highpoverty tracts (poverty rates of 30 percent or more in 1990) were stable, compared with almost 90 percent of lowpoverty tracts (poverty rates of less than 10 percent). And among those that changed significantly, the mix was more favorable for high-poverty tracts (37 percent improved, 18 percent worsened) than low-poverty tracts (1 percent improved, 11 percent worsened).
- While stronger market conditions generally implied a more favorable balance, almost all metropolitan areas saw a mix of trends among their neighborhoods in the 1990s. In the strongest markets (top third of metropolitan areas ranked by an index we constructed), a larger share of all tracts improved (15 percent) than worsened (9 percent). In the weaker markets (bottom third by our index), many more worsened (19 percent), but even there, a nontrivial share improved (6 percent).
- Just over half of all tracts that worsened experienced a significant change in racial composition (where racial and ethnic groups that increased in share did so by 15 percentage points or more over the decade). While this was not true everywhere, it appears that a notable worsening of neighborhood poverty in the 1990s was often accompanied by the in- migration of lower-income minorities. Hispanics accounted for the largest increases in 56 percent of these tracts, and blacks did so in 31 percent.
- Turning to tracts that improved, however, comparatively few of them (22 percent), experienced a similarly large changes in racial composition. Whites and other non-Hispanic nonblack groups accounted for the largest increases in only a third of these (only 300 tracts in all). While this measure is fairly crude, it certainly suggests that where large decreases in poverty took place, gentrification involving notable racial change was generally not the dominant explanation.
- While tracts that experienced significant changes in poverty in the 1990s were found in all parts of the metropolitan area, tracts that improved were predominantly located in the inner portions of the central city and the outer rings of the suburbs. In contrast, tracts that worsened were more prevalent in the outer portions of the cities and, in particular, the inner ring of the suburbs.
- Beyond this, our analysis found no simple set of indicators as of 1990 that reliably differentiated tracts that would improve, remain stable, or worsen over the subsequent decade (regression analysis explained 30 percent of the variation at best). However, given the importance of these changes, local data systems that could provide more reliable early warnings are worth pursuing.
(End of excerpt. The entire paper is available in PDF format.)
Usage, posting and reprint of materials on the UI web site:
Most publications may be downloaded free of charge from the web site in PDF format. This information may be used and copies made for research, academic, policy or other non-commercial purposes. Proper attribution is required. Copyright of the written materials contained within the Urban Institute website is owned or controlled by the Urban Institute. Posting UI research papers on other websites is permitted subject to prior approval from the Urban Institute—contact paffairs@ui.urban.org.
If you are unable to access or print the PDF document please contact us or call the Publications Office at (202) 261-5687.
Disclaimer: The nonpartisan Urban Institute publishes studies, reports, and books on timely topics worthy of public consideration. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
