This report was prepared at the Urban Institute for U.S. Department of Labor, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Policy, under DOL Contract No. J-9-M-0048, #23. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Department of Labor, or the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
Table of Contents
Introduction
Demographic Change and the Future Workforce
Trends in Work and Family, Health Insurance, Pensions
Trends in Employer-Provided Health and Pension Benefits and Families
Technology and Work Organization
Adapting to Tight Labor Markets
Globalization
The Low-Skilled Labor Market
Tables
Table 1: The Changing Mix of the US Labor Force by Age, Ethnicity, and Sex: 1976-2006
Table 2: Participation in Job-Related Education and Training by Age Group in the US and Other Selected Countries
Table 3: Percent of Women in the Labor Force in Various Types of Families: Second Quarter of 1998
Table 4: Percent of Men in the Labor Force in Various Types of Families: Second Quarter of 1998
Table 5: Annual Work Hours of Husbands and Wives with at Least One Child
Table 6: Gains in Employment-Population Ratios and Unemployment Rate Reductions by Age, Ethnicity, and Education: 1992-1998
Table 7: Distribution of Net Employment Growth of Population, Ages 25 and Over, by Educational Status: 1992-1998, 1st Half
Table 8: Relationship Between Changes in Wage Rates and Weekly Earnings and State Labor Market Conditions: 1995:I to 1998:I
Figures
Figure 1: Relationship Between Unemployment Rate, Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Employment Cost Index (ECI): 1980-1998
Figure 2: Trends in Unemployment Rates and Labor Force Participation Rates: 1970-1998
Figure 3: Distribution of Unemployment Rates by State: 1998: I
Figure 4: Average of Exports Plus Imports as a Share of Gross Domestic Product: 1959-1998
Introduction
The recent performance of the US job market has proved surprisingly strong. Unemployment rates are at a 30-year low and far below what most macroeconomists predicted could be reached without substantial increases in inflation. Job growth has been strong. Employers have expanded their recruitment to reach large numbers of youth, low-skilled workers, mothers heading families, and other groups generally not favored in the labor market. Even wages, which had been rising only slowly, have been increasing more rapidly.
In the context of today's good times, it makes sense to step back and assess the broader trends affecting the job market of today and the future. One rationale is to put in place policies that can help sustain the economic expansion without spurring a new round of inflation. A second rationale is to improve our understanding of the interactions between the job market; emerging social, economic, and demographic trends; and public policies. What forces will policymakers have to confront in the future? Is wage inequality likely to increase in the future? How can we best meet employer demands while giving priority to the needs of low-skilled workers and their families?
The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the dialogue about these and related questions. We review seven broad social, economic, and demographic trends affecting the US labor force now and in the future. The seven topics deal in turn with demographic trends, work and family issues, health and pension patterns, technical change, adjustment to low unemployment, globalization, and low-skilled workers. The purpose is first, to set the context for new research by bringing together existing knowledge and second, to provide some initial ideas relevant to public policy. Clearly, government policies have a considerable influence on the job market. If new policies are derived informed by the latest research, better policies may materialize.
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