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Abstract
In this paper I review Daniel Patrick Moynihan's views on employment and young black men in his 1965 report. I then update the evidence on their employment status, and review the causes and policy implications of these trends. Moynihan was extremely prescient in forecasting a "crisis...that would only grow worse." He understood that these trends involve both limits on labor market opportunities that these young men face as well as skill deficits and behavioral responses by the young men themselves. Policies that deal with a wide range of disadvantages and behaviors are needed to reverse these trends.
Introduction
In his 1965 report on the status of black families in America, Daniel Patrick Moynihan referred to the employment situation of young black men as an "unconcealable crisis….the problem will now become steadily more serious." He also identified this situation as a primary cause of the instability of black families that he documented in the report, and as a priority for any public policies that might seek to stabilize black families.
How accurate was Moynihan's prognosis of a steadily growing crisis in the employment of young black men? Was his analysis of the problem accurate, both in the mid-1960s and in subsequent decades? What additional factors that he did not foresee affect the employment outcomes of young black men? And what does all of this imply for public policy?
In this paper I review Moynihan's perspective on the employment problems of young black men in 1965, and what we have learned from empirical research on this topic since then. I begin in the next section by documenting Moynihan's perspective, and then in subsequent parts of the paper I review more recent trends and empirical evidence on their causes. I conclude with some thoughts on what all of this implies for public policy.
I argue that Moynihan's views in 1965 were stunningly prescient, as the employment situation of young black men has steadily deteriorated since then. He correctly identified many of the causes of this problem, though some economic and social forces and trends were impossible to foresee at that time. The appropriate policy prescriptions today are thus somewhat broader than what he argued for at the time, though still fairly consistent with his overall views.
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