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Posted to Web: September 01, 2000

Permanent Link: http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=1000389

This article used the 1992-1996 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) to examine time trends in rates of disability in activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living and in rates of physical limitation among Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and over. We found that disability is declining and that the trend toward a more educated elderly cohort explains some, but not all, of this decline. In the absence of downward disability trends, per capita Medicare expenditures would have grown even faster than they have. Although the decline in disability prevalence in recent years appears real, whether it continues has enormous implications for the size of the disabled population in the future and for the ability of the society to care for its disabled elderly members. (Journals of Gerontology (B): Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 2000 September; 55(5): 298-307).

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