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Posted to Web: May 01, 2000

Permanent Link: http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=1000294

This study explores the implications of the aging of the Baby Boom generation and increased longevity after age 65 for Medicare and long term care costs. Estimates show that Medicare spending increases at a decreasing rate with age, while long term care costs rise at an increasing rate. End of life Medicare costs actually decline with age, while nursing home costs rise sharply. Projections suggest that the impact of the increased longevity after age 65 of current and future elderly on Medicare spending will be small, and, although the impact of longevity on long term care spending will be larger, the dominant factor increasing future spending for both types of care will be the sheer number of persons turning age 65. (The New England Journal of Medicine 2000 May; 342(19); 1409-1415).

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