Publications by Irene Headen for Health Policy Center

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More about Irene Headen's areas of expertise can be found on this Urban Institute expert's page.

The federal government will pay the overwhelming majority of the costs associated with the expansion of Medicaid under the new health reform law, and the number of uninsured will drop markedly across the country. States with large uninsured populations today are expected to see the biggest increases in Medicaid coverage. Nationally, by 2019, Medicaid enrollment will climb by 15.9 million more people due to the new law; the uninsured will fall by more than 11 million. Between 92 and 95% of the new costs will be paid by the federal government from 2014 to 2019, with the remainder paid by states.

This report assesses the changes in coverage patterns and health care costs that will occur nationally if major reforms are not enacted. The authors find that by 2015, there could be 59.7 million people uninsured. The number could swell to 67.6 million by 2020, up from an estimated 49.4 million in 2010. As premiums nearly double, employees in small firms would see offers of health insurance almost cut in half, dropping from 41 percent of firms offering insurance in 2010 to 23 percent in 2020. Individual spending could jump 34 percent by 2015 and 79 percent by 2020.

This paper used the Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model to examine the impact on insurance coverage in government, employer, and family spending in all 50 states in absence of reform. In all states employer sponsored insurance would fall, and Medicaid enrollment and the number of uninsured would increase. Employer spending would increase despite drops in coverage. Government spending for public health insurance programs and for financing of uncompensated care would increase. The results differ among states depending on the distribution of employees by firm size and wage levels, the breadth of coverage in public programs and projected population growth.

Medicaid provides a strong platform on which reform efforts to expand health insurance coverage can be built as two-thirds of the nation’s uninsured are low-income. Medicaid coverage could be broadened to reach more of the low-income uninsured by eliminating categorical restrictions and establishing a national eligibility standard based on income. This paper analyzes several options for expanding Medicaid using various income eligibility thresholds for adults and children under both current and enhanced participation rates. The analysis shows coverage and cost implications of the options, as well as impacts by region and with payment rates adjusted to promote provider participation.

This report uses the Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model (HIPSM) to quantify the intermediate and longer-term implications if America’s health care system is not significantly overhauled. Under a range of economic scenarios, the analysis shows an increasing strain on business owners and their employees over the next decade if reform is not enacted. There would be a dramatic decline in the number of people insured through employers, and millions more could become uninsured. There would be large growth in Medicaid/CHIP enrollment and spending, and increased spending on uncompensated health care. Middle-income working families would be the most affected.

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