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Publications by Matthew Buettgens for Health Policy Center

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More about Matthew Buettgens's areas of expertise can be found on this Urban Institute expert's page.

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Estimates of Coverage Changes for Children Enrolled in Separate Children's Health Insurance Programs in the Absence of Additional Federal CHIP Funding-Key Findings and Methodology (Research Report)
Lisa Dubay, Matthew Buettgens, Genevieve M. Kenney

The Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access Commission (MACPAC) commissioned the Urban Institute to updates its model to consider the alternative health insurance options that would be available to children enrolled in separate CHIP programs were separate CHIP coverage to be discontinued. Chapter 1, “Sources of Coverage for Children if CHIP Funding Is Exhausted,” of the March 2015 MACPAC report to Congress presents key findings from our simulation modeling. This report provides additional detail on the methodology used to develop the estimates and includes supplemental tables that support the estimates included in chapter 1 of the March 2015 MACPAC report.

Posted: March 13, 2015Availability: HTML | PDF

The Implications of King v. Burwell: Highlights from Three Analyses of the Consequences of Eliminating ACA Tax Credits in 34 States (Policy Briefs)
Linda J. Blumberg, Matthew Buettgens, John Holahan

This one page summary highlights finding from three recent analyses of the implications of a Supreme Court finding for the plaintiffs in King v. Burwell. The Supreme Court will hear arguments in the case on March 4, 2015.

Posted: March 02, 2015Availability: HTML | PDF

Response to the Heritage Foundation's Criticisms of the Urban Institute's King v. Burwell Analyses (Research Brief)
Linda J. Blumberg, Matthew Buettgens, John Holahan

In January and February 2015, Urban Institute researchers released three papers analyzing the implications of a Supreme Court ruling for the plaintiffs in King v. Burwell. A finding for the plaintiffs would eliminate the premium tax credits and cost-sharing reductions currently being provided under the Affordable Care Act in the states where the federal government is playing a role in operating the new nongroup insurance marketplaces established under the law. The Heritage Foundation criticized the validity of some of these estimates, as well as related analyses released by other researchers. Here the UI researchers respond to each of these criticisms.

Posted: February 24, 2015Availability: HTML | PDF

Health Care Spending by Those Becoming Uninsured if the Supreme Court Finds for the Plaintiff in King v. Burwell Would Fall by at Least 35 Percent (Research Report)
Matthew Buettgens, John Holahan, Linda J. Blumberg, Hannah Recht

If King v. Burwell is decided in favor of the plaintiff, additional coverage resulting from the ACA’s premium tax credits would be reversed, and some of those purchasing nongroup insurance fully with their own funds would become uninsured due to large increases in premiums. Consequently, spending on medical care would decline in the affected states. This analysis estimates the effect of such a change on hospital, physician, prescription drug and all other spending, noting how much of the continued spending would be self-paid by the uninsured and how much would rely upon historic rates of uncompensated care funding persisting.

Posted: February 12, 2015Availability: HTML | PDF

Characteristics of Those Affected by a Supreme Court Finding for the Plaintiff in King v. Burwell (Policy Briefs/Timely Analysis of Health Policy Issues)
Linda J. Blumberg, Matthew Buettgens, John Holahan

Following up on our previous analysis of the implications of a Supreme Court finding for the plaintiff in the King v. Burwell, this brief describes the characteristics of those that would be affected, particularly those who would otherwise have nongroup insurance. Of the 9.3 million people estimated to lose tax credits, two-thirds would become uninsured. Most are adults who are low and middle income but not poor, most are white, non-Hispanic, and most reside in the South. Financial burdens would increase substantially for those wishing to continue buying the same coverage they would have under current implementation of the law.

Posted: January 22, 2015Availability: HTML | PDF

Transitioning from Medicaid Expansion Programs to Medicare: Making Sure Low-Income Medicare Beneficiaries Get Financial Help (Research Brief)
Matthew Buettgens, Lynda Flowers, Jay Dev

The Affordable Care Act allows states to offer Medicaid coverage to low-income adults who would not have qualified under previous law. This population will face higher cost-sharing requirements when they transition to Medicare, although some may be eligible for traditional Medicaid benefits and/or Medicare Savings Programs (MSPs) that will reduce their costs. This report discusses how Medicare beneficiaries can qualify for traditional Medicaid and MSPs, provides new estimates of the number and characteristics of eligible individuals, and outlines policy options that would make it easier for Medicare beneficiaries to qualify for traditional Medicaid benefits and MSPs.

Posted: January 21, 2015Availability: HTML | PDF

The Implications of a Supreme Court Finding for the Plaintiff in King vs. Burwell: 8.2 Million More Uninsured and 35% Higher Premiums (Policy Briefs/Timely Analysis of Health Policy Issues)
Linda J. Blumberg, Matthew Buettgens, John Holahan

The Supreme Court will hear the King v. Burwell case, in which the plaintiff argues that the ACA prohibits payment of premium tax credits and cost-sharing reductions to people in states without state-managed Marketplaces. We estimate that a victory for the plaintiff would increase the number of uninsured by 8.2 million people and eliminate $28.8 billion in tax credits and cost-sharing reductions in 2016 ($340 billion over 10 years) for 9.3 million people. With lower cost individuals leaving the market, average nongroup premiums in 34 states would increase by 35 percent, affecting those purchasing inside and outside those Marketplaces.

Posted: January 08, 2015Availability: HTML | PDF

Racial/Ethnic Differences in Uninsurance Rates under the ACA (Research Report)
Lisa Clemans-Cope, Matthew Buettgens, Hannah Recht

This report is the first state-level projection of ACA coverage gains for racial/ethnic groups. Absent ACA coverage provisions, Latinos, blacks, and American Indian/Alaska Natives are overrepresented among the uninsured. With the ACA and current state Medicaid expansion decisions, uninsurance rates are projected to fall for each racial/ethnic group, narrowing coverage differences between whites and each minority group, except for blacks. If all states were to expand their Medicaid programs, we project that uninsurance rates would fall further for all racial/ethnic groups, with blacks experiencing a marked reduction. Effective outreach can further reduce uninsurance rates for all racial/ethnic groups

Posted: December 16, 2014Availability: HTML | PDF

CHIPRA Mandated Evaluation of the Children's Health Insurance Program: Final Findings (Research Report)
Genevieve M. Kenney, Lisa Clemans-Cope, Ian Hill, Stacey McMorrow, Jennifer M. Haley, Timothy Waidmann, Sarah Benatar, Matthew Buettgens, Victoria Lynch, Nathaniel Anderson, Additional Authors

This report presents findings from an evaluation of CHIP mandated by CHIPRA and patterned after an earlier evaluation. Some of the evaluation findings are at the national level, while others focus on the 10 states selected for more intensive study: Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Texas, Utah, and Virginia. The evaluation included a large survey conducted in 2012 of CHIP enrollees and disenrollees in the 10 states, and Medicaid enrollees and disenrollees in three of these states. It also included case studies conducted in each of the 10 survey states in 2012 and a national telephone survey of CHIP administrators conducted in early 2013.

Posted: October 24, 2014Availability: HTML | PDF

Monitoring the Impact of the Affordable Care Act on Employers (Research Report)
Fredric Blavin, Bowen Garrett, Linda J. Blumberg, Matthew Buettgens, Sarah Gadsden, Shanna Rifkin

In this report, we analyze recent trends in the employer health insurance market and the anticipated effects of the Affordable Care Act on employers, with a particular focus on small firms with fewer than 50 workers. We first present a detailed picture of the employer market by identifying preexisting trends in key outcomes that could be incorrectly attributed to the Affordable Care Act. We also analyze the literature to identify economic factors that are important in current employer and employee decisions regarding health coverage.

Posted: October 23, 2014Availability: HTML | PDF

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