View Research by Author - Melissa Favreault

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Citation URL: http://www.urban.org/MelissaFavreault

I argue that Social Security benefits for long-term, low-wage workers are modest and need to be increased. There are many ways to bolster benefits for low-income retirees, each with strengths and weaknesses, so technical details of each proposal will determine its effectiveness. Any Social Security reform package will include multiple provisions that interact with one another. Certain provisions to help low-earners may be more or less desirable depending on a package's other components. Finally, some low-income older and disabled Americans are beyond Social Security's reach. To help them, Congress should consider expanding the Supplemental Security Income program.

Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we consider how parental education relates to four outcomes in the children's generation: education, lifetime earnings, health, and wealth. By focusing on parents' and children's ranks, we characterize relative mobility in terms of distributions of outcomes and can see patterns that even a relatively disaggregated analysis, like a quintile-based transition matrix, can obscure. Our results show relatively high intergenerational mobility except at extremes, where very low-ranked parents are much more likely to have very low-ranked children and very high-ranked parents are much more likely to have very high-ranked children.

This commentary suggests ways of making the upcoming debate on Social Security reform more productive than some past efforts. Participants must be open to a range of solutions, financing must be transparent, and effects on disabled workers must be addressed. Reform efforts must acknowledge the changing economic environment, including increasing wage inequality, and shifting individual and family demographics. Guaranteed inflation-protected benefits are crucial, and the sacrifices necessary to balance the system should be shared across generations.

Recent growth in wage inequality has important implications for Social Security solvency and benefit distributions. Because only earnings below the taxable maximum are subject to payroll taxes, concentrated wage growth among higher earners generates less revenue than more evenly distributed growth. Social Security's progressive benefit formula increases benefit payouts when shares of workers with low wages grow. We use a dynamic microsimulation model to examine aggregate and distributional consequences of alternative scenarios about future wage growth. We find that relatively modest changes in assumptions about wage differentials generate marked changes in projected Social Security benefits, poverty, and long-term financing status.

Over the past several decades, the volatility of family income has increased markedly, and own earnings volatility has remained relatively flat. Volatility may affect retirement wealth, depending on whether volatility affects accrued pension contributions or withdrawals or earnings credited toward future Social Security benefits. This project assesses the effect of the volatility of individual and family earnings on asset accumulation and projected retirement wealth using survey data matched to administrative earnings records.

Despite working hard and playing by the rules over long periods, many workers end up poor in retirement. We propose an enhanced minimum benefit for Social Security that targets long-career workers with low lifetime earnings along with a modest credit that compensates workers for up to three years out of the labor market due to caregiving, unemployment, or poor health. By combining these elements, the proposal provides work incentives, yet recognizes realities facing low-wage workers, many of whom have had intermittent work careers. We show that these proposed enhancements would allow more adults to retire with a secure financial foothold.

This paper reviews why Social Security fails to lift more aged low-wage workers and people of color out of poverty. It examines the payroll tax and benefit formula and reviews literature about OASDI outcomes by race, gender, and earnings level. It describes how mortality, earnings, disability, childbearing, immigration and emigration, and marriage patterns all differ across U.S. racial/ethnic groups, and highlights the importance of these differences for program outcomes. The paper then uses the DYNASIM model to examine lifetime OASDI redistribution under current law and a trust fund-neutral reform package that would enhance system progressivity and improve outcomes for some vulnerable to retirement poverty.

Growing fiscal pressures and increasing life expectancy have prompted calls to raise retirement ages. Some fear this change might harm long-career, lower-wage workers. Tying retirement benefit eligibility to years of service might protect low-wage workers who start their careers early. But higher disability rates and greater employment volatility could offset lower-wage workers’ early labor force starts. Using survey data matched to administrative records, we describe how work histories vary by gender, education, and other characteristics. We find that years of service are not likely to effectively protect the lowest-wage workers, as those with the least education also work the least.

Although many researchers have documented lower levels of upward mobility amongst black families, it is difficult to disentangle the effects of discrimination from differences in (sometimes unobservable) characteristics that also contribute to variation in employment, income, health, housing, and wealth outcomes across groups. As a consequence, findings regarding the presence or absence of discrimination tend to be controversial. This review pulls together several strands of research on the subject, including the statistical analysis of survey data, audit studies comparing market outcomes for similarly qualified individuals who differ along racial lines, and public opinion polling data on discrimination. (Review 1 of 11.)

Children's mobility outcomes are a function of not only their parents' characteristics and resources, but also of the way parents transmit those characteristics and resources across generations. This review assesses the literature on the effects of family structure, resources, and childrearing styles on children's economic outcomes. Particular attention is paid to the challenge of disentangling the impacts of these determinants, which are often highly correlated: high socio-economic status individuals are better able to address their children’s material needs, but are also more likely to form stable, two-parent families and may even tend to employ more effective parenting strategies. (Review 3 of 11.)

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