View Research by Author - Douglas A. Wolf

Citation URL: http://www.urban.org/DouglasAWolf

Considerable evidence suggests that disability prevalence among older Americans has fallen, but less is known about how to promote further declines. This report develops and begins to demonstrate a framework for comparing population-level effects of interventions. We reviewed the literature for seven interventions and conducted simple modeling exercises. Evidence is strongest for exercise programs that increase strength, balance, and physical activity; depression screening with referral and feedback and therapy with pharmacologic treatment; and multi-factor fall prevention programs. Little evidence exists about the long-term effects of such interventions. Both short and long-term effects are critical when evaluating the population-level impact of such interventions.

Although the prevalence of late-life disability has been declining, how to promote further reductions has been unclear. We developed an analytical framework that compares the effects of different interventions on the prevalence of late-life disability. We considered three potentially high-impact intervention strategies: physical activity programs, depression screening and treatment, and fall prevention. We conclude that in the short run multi-component fall-prevention efforts have the greatest impact. At present, longer-term impacts cannot be assessed based on the current literature and may differ from short-run conclusions, since increases in longevity may temper the effect intervention strategies have on prevalence of late-life disabilities. (Milbank Quarterly 84(3): 493-520, 2006.)

This report details the development of a third version of MINT (Modeling Income in the Near Term), a tool for simulating the retirement incomes of members of the Baby Boom and neighboring cohorts. MINT3 can produce projections of economic and demographic characteristics in the year 2020, at the time of retirement, and for other years and ages. It can be used both to construct a baseline using alternative economic and demographic assumptions and to analyze the distributional consequences of a variety of Social Security policy changes.

This report examines the number of parents, siblings, and children reported by foreign-born respondents using the Language, Immigration, and Emigration supplement to the 1989 Current Population Survey. The data were sorted by period of entry into the United States, region of birth, and by current age. Also presented are numbers of relatives within and outside the United States as a way of addressing the potential for future immigration through family reunification.

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