View Research by Author - Caroline Ratcliffe

More about Caroline Ratcliffe's areas of expertise can be found on this Urban Institute expert's page.

Citation URL: http://www.urban.org/CarolineRatcliffe

Data from the 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances show a disturbing reality. Even prior to the current recession, many families did not have enough assets to see them through a modest spell of unemployment or another financial emergency. In 2007, nearly one in three U.S. families were liquid asset poor. Low-income, young, and nonemployed families are more vulnerable to economic emergencies. For example, two-thirds (68 percent) of bottom income quintile families and 47 percent of second income quintile families are liquid asset poor, while such shortfalls affect only 1 percent of top income quintile families.

This paper reviews the literature on poverty dynamics in the United States. It surveys the most prevalent data, theories, and methods used to answer three key questions: How likely are people to enter, exit, and reenter poverty? How long do people remain in poverty? And what events are associated with entering and exiting poverty? The paper then analyzes the combined findings of the literature, discussing overarching patterns of poverty dynamics, differences among demographic groups, and how poverty probabilities, duration, and events have changed over time. We conclude with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings and avenues for future research.

Slightly more than half of the U.S. population experiences poverty at some time before age 65. Roughly half of those who get out of poverty will become poor again within five years. Who is more likely to enter poverty? How long are people poor? And what events are associated with falling into and climbing out of poverty? This fact sheet summarizes key findings from the poverty dynamics literature to describe how, why, and when people move in and out of poverty.

This brief examines the size and characteristics of the low-wage workforce and whether low-wage workers experience wage growth. We define low-wage workers as workers whose hourly wage rates are so low that even if they worked full-time, full-year their annual earnings would fall below the poverty line for a family of four. This wage rate is $8.63 in 2001, equivalent to $10.50 in 2008. Almost one-third of all workers ages 16 to 64 are low-wage workers in 2001. From 2001 to 2003, we find some evidence that low-wage workers are moving to higher wage jobs. But, the majority of low-wage workers either remain in low-wage jobs or are not working at all.

The Minnesota Integrated Services Projects focus on improving the delivery of employment, health, and social services to families who receive cash assistance and have serious or multiple barriers to employment. Operating in eight sites, the project seeks to provide comprehensive assessments of participants' barriers, improve access to more complete services that address multiple needs, and coordinate services provided by multiple service systems. This is the final report in an evaluation of the project and describes the changes in the economic outcomes and family-related outcomes of ISP participants over a two-year period, provides estimates of the relationship between ISP participation and participants' employment and MFIP outcomes, and provides conclusions and policy recommendations.

The Census Bureau released its annual report on income, poverty, and health insurance coverage for the U.S. population on August 26, 2008. According to the report, median household income increased by 1.3 percent in 2007, while the overall poverty rate dipped slightly and the number and percentage of people without health insurance decreased. While the overall numbers were positive, not everyone shared in the economic gains. The number and percentage of children in poverty increased, and households in the lowest 40 percent of the income distribution had no significant income gains.

Low-wage jobs can be unstable, leaving families struggling to cope with employment gaps and financial emergencies that can strike without warning. About four in five low-income families are "asset poor," lacking enough liquid savings to live for three months at the federal poverty level without earnings. In this essay, McKernan and Ratcliffe suggest a cluster of policies that would improve financial markets and savings opportunities for low-income families across the life cycle.

Low-wage jobs can be unstable, leaving families struggling to cope with employment gaps and financial emergencies that can strike without warning. About four in five low-income families are "asset-poor," lacking enough liquid savings to live for three months at the federal poverty level without earnings. In this summary, McKernan and Ratcliffe suggest a cluster of policies that would improve financial markets and savings opportunities for low-income families across the life cycle.

This brief presents an empirical analysis of how asset tests affect families’ asset holdings. The findings suggest that more lenient asset tests and more generous IDA program rules can lead families to increase their asset holdings. Relaxed vehicle asset limits, for example, are associated with increased vehicle ownership. Since people often need a reliable car to get to work, this finding suggests that exempting at least one vehicle in all states may increase employment and job stability among low-income families. The findings also suggest that restrictions on withdrawals and incentives built into restricted asset accounts and IDA programs may provide families with motivation to build assets.

This report describes the work the Urban Institute performed to generate the Model of Income in the Near Term, Version 5 (MINT5). MINT is a tool developed for The Division of Policy Evaluation (DPE) of the Social Security Administration (SSA) to analyze the distributional consequences of Social Security reform proposals. MINT is a micro-level data file of individuals born between 1926 and 2018. It starts with a rich set of income and demographic characteristics from the 1990 to 1996 Survey of Income and Program Particpation (SIPP) data linked to SSA data on earnings and benefits. MINT then projects these characteristics until death or the year 2099.

Return to list of authors