View Research by Author - Avi Bhati

Publications

Re-offending patterns of a large cohort of offenders released from Florida Department of Corrections custody between 1996 and 2004 were analyzed to quantify the effects of DNA databases on offending patterns. Statistical models constructed to identify the specific deterrent effects of DNA databases distinct from their probative effects yielded mixed results. Small deterrent effects were found and for only some crime types (robbery and burglary). Strong probative effects were found for most crime types. Methods, data, results and implications are discussed in this report.

This report investigates the relationship between alcohol availability, type of alcohol establishment, distribution policies and violence and disorder at the block group level in the District of Columbia. We test whether density of alcohol outlets influences: (1) aggravated assault incidents, (2) calls for service for social "disorder" offenses, and (3) calls for service for a domestic incident, and examine variation in outcomes by time of day/day of week. Spatial econometric regression models are estimated using an information theoretic approach. The findings indicate that on-premise outlets, but not off-premise outlets are a significant predictor of aggravated assault.

Despite a growing consensus among scholars that substance abuse treatment is effective in reducing recidivism, strict eligibility rules have limited the impact of current models of therapeutic jurisprudence on public safety. This research effort was aimed at providing policy makers some guidance on whether expanding this model to more drug-involved offenders is cost-beneficial. We find that roughly 1.5 million arrestees who are probably guilty (the population most likely to participate in court monitored substance abuse treatment) are currently at risk of drug dependence or abuse and that several million crimes could be averted if current eligibility limitations were suspended and all at-risk arrestees were treated.

This report describes an information theoretic approach for estimating the number of crimes averted by incapacitation. It develops models of the criminal history accumulation process of a sample of individuals released from prison and uses the models to compute the number of crimes these individuals could reasonably have been expected to commit had they not been incarcerated. The models also afford the opportunity to conduct a limited set of policy simulations. Although a fair amount of heterogeneity is found among individuals, estimates do not vary sufficiently by gender, race or ethnicity. Variations across states and offense types are more pronounced.

Agricultural crime, including theft of farming-related commodities, supplies, and equipment, causes billions of dollars of losses each year to farmers, insurers, and consumers. Drawing on analyses of law enforcement, farm survey, site visit, and interview data, the Urban Institute and Florida State University evaluated the theory and impacts of a promising initiative in California—the Agricultural Crime, Technology, Information, and Operations Network (ACTION) project—aimed at addressing this problem. ACTION collects and analyzes agricultural crime data; encourages and enables information-sharing among law enforcement agencies and prosecutors within and across counties; educates the public and farmers about agricultural crime and how to combat it; marks equipment with owner applied numbers (OANs); and promotes aggressive law enforcement and prosecution. ACTION's activities appear to have reduced victimization and to have increased agricultural crime arrests and prosecutions, recovery of stolen property, and farmers' investment in crime prevention. This report describes the study and findings in detail.

Agricultural crime, including theft of farming-related commodities, supplies, and equipment, causes billions of dollars of losses each year to farmers, insurers, and consumers. Drawing on analyses of law enforcement, farm survey, site visit, and interview data, the Urban Institute and Florida State University evaluated the theory and impacts of a promising initiative in California—the Agricultural Crime, Technology, Information, and Operations Network (ACTION) project—aimed at addressing this problem. ACTION collects and analyzes agricultural crime data; encourages and enables information-sharing among law enforcement agencies and prosecutors within and across counties; educates the public and farmers about agricultural crime and how to combat it; marks equipment with owner applied numbers (OANs); and promotes aggressive law enforcement and prosecution. ACTION's activities appear to have reduced victimization and to have increased agricultural crime arrests and prosecutions, recovery of stolen property, and farmers' investment in crime prevention. This policy brief summarizes the study's key findings and its policy, theory, and research recommendations.

Dated arrest histories of a sample of prisoners released from state prisons in 1994, collected by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, were used to model re-offending trajectories and study their deflection. A semi-parametric method was used to develop plausible counterfactual trajectories and compare them with actual postrelease offending patterns. Analysis suggests that most individuals were either deterred from future offending (40 percent) or reverted back to projected offending patterns (56 percent) as a result of their incarceration. About 4 percent had a criminogenic effect.

Most prisoners released in the United States are subject to community supervision, often called "parole." But little is known about whether parole increases public safety outcomes or improves reentry transitions. This study compares prisoners released to supervision—via mandatory and discretionary release—with prisoners released unconditionally. Bureau of Justice Statistics data on 38,624 state prisoners released in 1994 from 15 states are analyzed, along with the differences between these groups and their rearrest rates. [View the corresponding press release]

This report describes a semi-parametric information-theoretic framework for modeling the determinants of rare events aggregated at intra-city areal units. It is used to study the effects of socio-economic and demographic characteristics of communities on the amount of violence they experience. Findings suggest some instability in the processes across types of violence and level of aggregation but also a stable predictor—resource depravation—for all the types of violence. Evidence of a spillover effect of a community's resource depravation on violence in its neighboring areas is also found. Findings are discussed in light of their substantive, methodological, and practical implications.

This evaluation examined the impact of Maryland's Break the Cycle (BTC) initiative, designed to reduce drug use and crime among probationers and parolees. The evaluation was based on a quasi-experimental design and used statistical procedures to control for systematic differences between BTC and non-BTC jurisdictions. The designs and exclusive reliance on secondary data from existing computer systems did have limitations. The evaluation concluded that BTC was an effective strategy for reducing drug arrests among probationers and parolees with drug conditions.

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