View Research by Author - Austin Nichols

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Citation URL: http://www.urban.org/AustinNichols

This paper examines the characteristics and circumstances of families vulnerable to sharp income drops and those most likely to recover financially. More than 13 percent of nonelderly adults in families with children will see their incomes fall by half at some point over the course of a year, and about 40 percent fully recover within a year. Those who lose jobs or have an adult leave the family are more likely to have a substantial drop in income and are less likely to recover. This study uses data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, which collects data every four months and can provide information on short-term income loss.

Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we consider how parental education relates to four outcomes in the children's generation: education, lifetime earnings, health, and wealth. By focusing on parents' and children's ranks, we characterize relative mobility in terms of distributions of outcomes and can see patterns that even a relatively disaggregated analysis, like a quintile-based transition matrix, can obscure. Our results show relatively high intergenerational mobility except at extremes, where very low-ranked parents are much more likely to have very low-ranked children and very high-ranked parents are much more likely to have very high-ranked children.

Using the 1996, 2001, and 2004 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation, this brief examines the likelihood that nonelderly individuals in families with children experience substantial drops in family income and recoveries from such drops. Over 13 percent of families see their incomes fall by half at some point over the course of a year with the lowest- and highest-income families the most likely to experience a substantial income loss. Further, only two in five individuals recover to at least 100 percent of their pre-drop income in the year after the drop.

Over the past several decades, the volatility of family income has increased markedly, and own earnings volatility has remained relatively flat. Volatility may affect retirement wealth, depending on whether volatility affects accrued pension contributions or withdrawals or earnings credited toward future Social Security benefits. This project assesses the effect of the volatility of individual and family earnings on asset accumulation and projected retirement wealth using survey data matched to administrative earnings records.

A unified measure of inequality, volatility, and mobility risk is developed from well-known decompositions of a generalized entropy inequality measure using panel data. Variation across individuals in mean family income is termed inequality, and the variability of income over time is decomposed into volatility and mobility risk. I apply the decompositions to several decades of U.S. data and find every component increasing over time, and a large impact of taxes. I further find large swings in the progressivity of income growth after taxes that are not observed in pretax income, consistent with the known tax regimes in recent U.S. history.

Using PSID data from 1968 to 2005, we find that the volatility of family income has increased over time (a trend that is robust to a large variety of modeling choices) but the trend in individual income volatility is less clear. Measurement error cannot fully account for these facts, but the increasing covariance of individual incomes within the family (driven by increases in the correlation of head and spouse earnings, due largely to the increased proportion of families with two earners) can.

This paper finds that about one in four workers, ages 18 to 61, earned less than $7.73 an hour in 2003. Low-wage workers who reside in low-income families with children are substantially less educated than the average worker, are concentrated in industries with low wages, and have limited prospects for wage growth. Many policies aimed at low-wage workers are not well-targeted at workers in low-income families with children, in part because only one in four low-wage workers reside in such families. Nevertheless, policies targeted at low-wage workers may have broad benefits, including improving the lot of low-income families with children.

Gender differences in academic achievement have long fascinated researchers and policy-makers alike. In this paper we analyze differences in math and reading test score growth rates by gender for four different race and ethnic groups -- white, black, Hispanic, and Asian students -- for six different time periods. Our data cover both the earliest years of education and the crucial years of adolescence. In addition, we have data bracketing one non-schooling period. Together these data enable us to get a very complete picture of how gender gaps evolve over the course of early elementary and high school years and how these trajectories differ by race and ethnicity. While the gender gaps are not always statistically significant, they are for 15 of 48 comparisons made, all during school. In addition, all of the statistically significant results suggest that males learn more math and females more reading during early elementary school and again during high school.

The policy community is increasingly focusing attention on alleviating the strain on low-income working families, particularly those with children. This paper examines both the income and expenses of these families to see if they are able to meet their expenses with the limited resources at their disposal. We find that low-income working families with at least one full-time, full-year worker fare better than one might expect in 2001, thanks to their work effort, earnings, and the Earned Income Tax Credit, but low-income families without a full-time, full-year worker do not appear to have enough income to cover their basic expenses.

Over the past 10 years, U.S. child poverty rates took two sharp turns: a major reduction from 1993 to 2000 followed by a slight hike from 2000 to 2004. This brief finds that the 1993 to 2000 drop in child poverty is largely due to improvements in the job market, especially for less-educated workers. The economic downturn beginning in 2000 hit all families, even those with more education, but the families of black children were hit hardest.

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