This volume is the result of the Extending Opportunities Project (EOP), which was hosted at the National Partnership for Community Leadership in May 2001 and March 2002. The purpose of the project was to examine how young, less-educated men fared in the economic boom of the 1990s. We thank the Charles Stewart Mott Foundation and the U.S. Department of Labor for financial support for the Extended Opportunities Project, including the conferences, dissemination of the conference proceedings, and production of the volume. Several researchers and policy experts offered valuable comments on the drafts of papers included in this volume and gave valuable feedback at the Extended Opportunities Project. We thank Robert Lerman, Gary Burtless, Keith Islanfedt, Luis Falcon, Mark Elliott, Irwin Garfinkel, Stephanie Robinson, and Hugh Heclo. The authors remain responsible for any errors.
Beginning with Harry Holzer and Paul Offner, several authors in this volume examine how poorly young, less-educated black men performed relative to other less-educated young people during the economic expansion of the 1990s, and why. They explore the roles of the macroeconomy, the deconcentration of blue-collar employment, criminal justice policy, and the employment aspirations of young, less-educated black men, and consider their implications for the design of employment services, welfare-to-work policies, workforce development policy, and child support enforcement policy. Two subsequent chapters comprehensively review policy opportunities to assist less-educated young black fathers and discuss how to overcome political resistance to initiatives serving less-educated black men.
In chapter 2, "Trends in the Employment Outcomes of Young Black Men, 1979-2000," Holzer and Offner paint a troubling picture of the decline in employment and labor market participation rates among less-educated young black men in the 1980s and 1990s despite the robust economic conditions that defined both periods. Using data from the Current Population Survey's Outgoing Rotation Groups, Holzer and Offner compare the labor market outcomes of less-educated young black men with other groups of young men and women between 16 and 24 years old who are not enrolled in school or enlisted in the military. They consider three outcomes: employment-population ratios, labor force participation rates, and real wages. For each outcome, young white and Hispanic men improve slightly, compared with women, but black men decline. Holzer and Offner also statistically test various hypotheses that could explain the deterioration in labor market outcomes for less-educated young black men.
In chapter 3, "Forecasting the Labor Market Prospects of Less-Educated Americans," William M. Rodgers III contemplates how "looser" labor markets will affect less-educated young workers and the implications for social policy. Before addressing these issues, Rodgers puts recent labor market conditions into historical perspective. Although unemployment has risen since 1990, by historical standards the national unemployment rate remains low, as is the unemployment rate of our target population.
Next, Rodgers decomposes the effects of national labor market conditions on the labor market outcomes of specific groups in our target population. He finds that less-educated young black workers are the most sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. He then uses the decomposition methods and the Bush administration 2004 and 2005 forecasts of the national unemployment rate to predict labor market outcomes for less-educated young black men over the next decade. He suggests that employment-population ratios of less-educated young workers will improve over the next decade. However, for most demographic groups, ratios will not return to the values evident at the peak of the 1990s boom. Policymakers must therefore find other ways to reduce barriers to labor market search, entry, and retention, and cushion the effects that skill-based technological change and globalization will have on less-educated workers.
Holzer, Steven Raphael, and Michael A. Stoll explore the effects of ties to the criminal justice system in chapter 4, "How Do Employer Perceptions of Crime and Incarceration Affect the Employment Prospects of Less-Educated Young Black Men?" The authors use data from a unique survey of employers to study if high rates of crime and incarceration have had a chilling effect on the labor market prospects of less-educated young black males-both those who have participated in illegal activity and those who have not. Because black men have higher rates of crime and incarceration than young men of other racial and ethnic groups, the flow of young black men out of prison and back into the community is likely to be large each year, as is the total number of ex-prisoners or ex-felons. The reentry phenomenon, along with at least moderate effects of arrest rates on black men's earnings and employment, suggests negative effects of crime on young black men working or looking for work, and on their observed earnings.
Holzer, Raphael, and Stoll show that employers are much more reluctant to hire ex-offenders than welfare recipients, workers with long-term unemployment, or any other group. However, most employers in the survey do not regularly check the criminal background of their employees. Employers who are unwilling to hire ex-offenders but do not check for criminal backgrounds might be engaging in a form of "statistical discrimination" or racial profiling against black men, based on their aversion to hiring offenders as well as their scant information about which job applicants actually have criminal backgrounds. Thus, the growing presence of ex-offenders among low-income black men will have serious negative consequences for their employment rates.
In chapter 5, "Are Less-Educated Women Crowding Less-Educated Men Out of the Labor Market?," Rebecca M. Blank and Jonah Gelbach explore whether there is a causal relationship between increases in female labor market participation and declines in labor market participation among less-educated men. Expansion in female labor supply spurred during the 1990s could have reduced male labor supply in two ways. First, rising income among mothers, sisters, and girlfriends could have reduced the incentives for men to work. Second, female workers could have more than compensated for the increase in demand for low-skilled workers, perhaps reducing the number of jobs available for men. While the first argument, called an income effect, remains plausible, Blank and Gelbach gather several kinds of evidence and arguments that cast doubt on the second argument, called a displacement effect.
First, Blank and Gelbach explain that displacement of less-educated men by women would result in falling wages and rising unemployment among less-educated men, neither of which occurred. Second, they argue that occupational segregation by gender makes displacement unlikely. Third, they show that there is a relatively strong and positive correlation between the labor supply of male and female less-educated workers, and that the simple correlations between changes in hours of work among male workers and female labor force participation are negative, but essentially zero. Fourth, they examine labor supply changes among less-educated men and women in metropolitan areas where female labor force participation grew very rapidly and those where it grew very slowly. They also find little evidence of substitution. Finally, Blank and Gelbach find no evidence of adverse effects of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) implementation on male labor force participation among less- or more-educated men or of adverse associations between female and male transitions to employment.
In chapter 6, "Did Spatial Mismatch Affect Male Labor Force Participation during the 1990s Expansion?" John A. Foster-Bey Jr. explores how the employment prospects of less-educated young men were affected by the decentralization of jobs that occurred in most metropolitan areas during the 1970s and 1980s. He examines this phenomenon in eight metropolitan areas selected for their geographic and racial diversity and range of metropolitan types. Foster-Bey finds that blue-collar jobs have disproportionately left the central cities and urban core for the suburbs and that wages of blue-collar workers in the urban core declined relative to wages of blue-collar suburban workers in five of the metropolitan areas. Finally, Foster-Bey examines whether urban-suburban differences in male labor force participation trends during the 1990s were related to whether metropolitan areas experienced job deconcentration. He finds that (with one exception) all metropolitan areas where male labor force participation grew slower in the urban core than in the suburbs also experienced high levels of job deconcentration in the blue-collar sector, as expected.
Solutions to the deteriorating labor market outcomes of less-educated young black men (and other less-educated young workers) are most likely to be crafted in education, workforce development, and income security policies. For this reason, the next two chapters of the volume examine how less-educated young black men see the labor market, including their views about good jobs, how they use employment programs to secure those jobs, and what changes in workforce development policy have affected the availability of employment services. The chapters also address changes in public assistance policies, which are likely to affect less-educated young black men because many are (or will be) fathers of children who receive public benefits.
Alford A. Young Jr. looks closely into the world of less-educated young black males in chapter 7, "Low-Income Black Men on Work Opportunity, Work Resources, and Job Training Programs." Relying on qualitative data from a convenience sample of young black men living in Detroit, Young explores how these men interpret the available and desirable work opportunities, including what jobs they believe are available for men like them, how these jobs might be acquired, and how the available jobs compare with the kinds of work they most desire. Then Young explores how these men view employment programs and support agencies.
Young finds no lack of commitment to work among these young black men, who believe that job training and placement programs should provide entry into "good" jobs, such as factory jobs with good pay and benefits that compensate for the undesirable working conditions. They often seek work at temporary employment agencies, which link them to jobs where one worker can easily substitute for another. This makes temporary agencies more tolerant of absences due to family or other emergencies. Moreover, with adequate private funds, temporary agencies can afford to hire staff and buy furnishing that create a pleasant environment.
By contrast, publicly funded employment programs have limited staff and their facilities are furnished with the bare essentials. They are also overcrowded with people who often use these agencies to maintain eligibility for unemployment benefits and who are distressed by their inability to find work. Clients see a different employment counselor each time they visit the program, and therefore counselors do not have the opportunity to become familiar with the employment aspirations and barriers of particular clients. Finally, publicly supported employment programs do not offer the supportive services needed to help clients overcome the legal, educational, transportation, and other barriers that keep them from obtaining good jobs, or the stress associated with being unable to obtain such jobs. To serve young black men effectively, employment services might have to be treated as one component of a more comprehensive array of services, available in programs that serve long-term welfare recipients and other hard-to-serve populations.
Demetra Smith Nightingale and Elaine Sorensen explore the role of changing workforce development policy in chapter 8, "The Availability and Use of Workforce Development Programs among Less-Educated Youth." Funding for workforce development programs for young less-educated workers declined during the 1990s as available funding was heavily targeted to welfare reform efforts. As a result of these changes, Nightingale and Sorensen find, less-educated young black men with low earnings were significantly less likely to receive job services than other less-educated young workers with low earnings.
Besides differences in the amount of job services, Nightingale and Sorensen also find that young, less-educated black men were less likely than other groups of less-educated workers to receive job services leading to higher-paying jobs. Less-educated young black men were just as likely to receive job search assistance as less-educated young black women and nearly twice as likely to receive this service as less-educated young nonblack men. The authors also find that young minority men in the Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) program were more likely to receive basic education and less likely to receive skills training than other groups. Black men were also less likely than other young people to participate in on-the-job training, the most promising job training component in terms of increased employment and earnings.
Nightingale and Sorensen conclude that these participation imbalances need to be corrected and that more young black men should participate in occupation-specific training to simultaneously improve their basic education ability and occupational skills. Finally, the authors show that jobs with features accommodating the preferences of less-educated men should be available if they participate in short-term occupational skills training and slightly modify their views about what constitutes "masculine" work.
Cyclical sensitivity of employment, declining labor force participation, and stagnant real wages of young, less-educated men are undoubtedly contributing to delays in marriage and increases in nonmarital fertility among youth and young adults. Increased risks of child poverty are also likely to result, especially among black children, because the employment rates of less-educated black adults are most sensitive to the business cycle, and black men have the lowest employment and labor force participation rates of all racial and ethnic groups. For these reasons, income security is another policy arena where we might look for policy solutions.
Over the past two decades, Wendell Primus and Ron Haskins have observed and shaped income security policy, as key staff to House and Senate committees of jurisdiction on both sides of the aisle. Their discussions of policy options in chapters 9 and 10 build upon federal and state policymakers' increasing interest in the role of both parents in reducing child poverty.
In chapter 9, "Improving Public Policies to Increase the Income and Employment of Low-Income Nonresident Fathers," Primus culls lessons from welfare reform to propose incentives (operating principally through the child support enforcement system) that might help increase the employment of less-educated young men. First, he describes how onerous child support enforcement has become for low-income noncustodial parents, most of whom are fathers. Child support orders can push low-earning noncustodial parents far below the poverty level, especially if they have unstable employment. Many low-income fathers do not pay child support regularly because they are poor. Many accumulate large arrearages, which deter them from seeking stable employment, encourage them to move into underground economies, or limit their employment to jobs that pay cash. They may also be subject to license suspension and incarceration, which sever ties with their families.
Primus proposes a new vision for child support enforcement that corresponds with the transition of child support from a mechanism for cost recovery to a potential source of income for poor families. He argues for supplementing standard enforcement activities with services for low-income noncustodial parents who cannot pay child support regularly. All child support payments would be passed through to children in custodial families, and the government would supplement the child support payments of low-income noncustodial parents.
In chapter 10, "Poor Fathers and Public Policy: What Is to Be Done?," Ron Haskins argues that low marriage rates and higher child poverty rates are among the most important consequences of the poor labor market outcomes of less-educated men. He suggests that the adverse effects of paternal absence on child development and the dismal performance of less-educated black men require "substantial and long-term solutions." Haskins comments that congressional interest in disadvantaged men is no longer confined to the difficulty with collection of child support payments from them. Instead, consistent with congressional interest in rebuilding the traditional family in America, there is now more legislative support for helping disadvantaged men marry and become responsible fathers.
Haskins lists many policies that could be reformed to ameliorate some of these problems, especially policies intended to increase marriage and fathers' financial and emotional contributions to children. His discussions of each policy area include recent congressional activity and recent evidence about the effects of programs on the relevant outcomes. Haskins recommends demonstration projects to examine if block granting Head Start funding improves states' abilities to coordinate and evaluate preschool programs and increases the educational attainment of low-income minority children. He also recommends gradually increasing funds for the Job Corps, the only federally funded workforce development program that has been proved effective, by rigorous evaluation, for less-educated young men. He also discusses expansion of demonstration projects designed to help ex-offenders find jobs.
Perhaps Haskins' most extensive recommendations arise in relation to welfare and child support. First, he suggests that state and federal income security programs should be reviewed to identify barriers to serving fathers and married couples, especially in welfare-to-work programs. Second, while not mentioning subsidies for child support payments, he echoes Primus' recommendations about passing all child support through to custodial mothers and offering job services to fathers who are unable to meet their child support obligations. Third, he endorses the Bush administration's proposal for healthy marriage demonstration programs, through marriage education and relationship skills as well as programs that attempt to reduce barriers to marriage.
In "Toward a Fruitful Policy Discourse about Less-Educated Young Men," Hillard Pouncy points out the current obstacles to initiatives that would assist less-educated young black men. Opposition comes from advocates for low-income women, who believe that limited discretionary spending should be reserved to move former welfare recipients out of working poverty. Opposition also comes from some conservatives who use the results of previous employment programs to argue that less-educated young black men face so many barriers that further investments in their education and training would be unwise.
However, Pouncy suggests that some of this resistance could be overcome by pointing out that young black men are not the only ones threatened by inadequate job preparation. While incarceration rates have reached epidemic levels among blacks, they have grown among all less-educated young men, despite declines in actual crimes rates. Moreover, the declining labor force participation and employment rates of young less-educated black men may be partly attributable to antiquated, though not antisocial, attitudes and information about available job opportunities. Thus, Pouncy suggests new demonstration research that would alter the employment preferences of less-educated young black men, provide information about mechanical and technical jobs in the sectors identified by Sorenson and Nightingale, provide relatively short-term occupational training, and, building on recent sectoral employment initiatives, place these men in higher-earning jobs than they currently occupy.
Black Males Left Behind, edited by Ronald B. Mincy, is available from the Urban Institute Press (paper, 6" x 9", 344 pages, ISBN 978-0-87766-727-8, $29.50).
