Research by Author & Topic

Publications by Roberton Williams on Tax Distribution and Economic Trends

Nearly half of all tax units will pay no income tax in 2009. The fraction of non-taxpayers differs widely, depending on income, tax filing status, and whether the unit is elderly or contains children.

Many have suggested that reducing or eliminating the tax exclusion of employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) could generate significant additional tax revenue to fund expansions in health insurance coverage. In this paper, we focus on two specific policy design elements: (1) a cap, or dollar limit, on the amount of employer-sponsored health insurance premiums excluded from taxable income; and (2) an index that determines how this cap might grow over time. Our analysis shows that limiting the tax exclusion would provide substantial funding for health reform and mitigate the huge inequities built into the current treatment of employer premiums.

President Obama's 2010 Budget contains a number of tax provisions that would cut taxes for low- and middle-income households and raise taxes on wealthier taxpayers. This resource guide describes the tax proposals, offers more detailed commentary on key provisions, and links to tables showing the distributional effects of the overall proposal and various elements of the plan.

This report card evaluates the provisions of the Finance and Ways & Means Committees' conference tax stimulus bill (the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Tax Act of 2009"). The evaluation is preliminary and does not include all of the provisions in the bill most notably we omit provisions related to state and local debt and recovery zone credits. TPC will update the report card if significant changes occur before Congress passes the bill.

This report card compares the provisions of the House and Senate tax stimulus bills (the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Tax Plan of 2009"). The combined evaluation is preliminary and does not include all of the provisions in the bill - most notably we omit provisions related to state and local debt and recovery zone credits. TPC will update the report card as we learn more about specific provisions and as the stimulus bills move through Congress.

The Tax Policy Center has graded the key tax provisions of the pending Senate stimulus bill (the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Tax Plan of 2009"). Our grades, which rely on the bill's legislative language, focus on how well these measures would boost the economy in the short run. Accompanying write-ups describe current law, the proposed change, and the short- and long-term effects on the budget, the economy, fairness and tax complexity. We will update the report card as we learn more about the provisions and as the stimulus bill moves through Congress.

The Tax Policy Center has graded the key tax provisions of the pending House stimulus bill (the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Tax Plan of 2009"). Our grades, which rely on the bill's legislative language, focus on how well these measures would boost the economy in the short run. Accompanying write-ups describe current law, the proposed change, and the short- and long-term effects on the budget, the economy, fairness and tax complexity. We will update the report card as we learn more about the provisions and as the stimulus bill moves through Congress.

During the presidential campaign, Barack Obama proposed a comprehensive tax plan that would raise taxes on high-income taxpayers, cut taxes for low- and middle-income households, and lose $2.9 trillion dollars of revenue over ten years. Obama will take office with the economy in sharp recession and a deteriorating fiscal situation, made worse by new spending on a bailout plan. Faced with those crises, Obama says he will pursue both his campaign tax plan and additional tax-related proposals addressing problems created by the downturn. This paper examines revenue and distributional effects of the tax plan and describes some stimulus proposals.

One measure of the tax burden imposed on households is their effective tax rate (ETR)—the total taxes they pay measured as a percentage of their pretax income. ETRs vary across types of households because of differences in sources and levels of income and in how the tax system treats taxpayers in different situations. Each year the Congressional Budget Office estimates ETRs for individual and corporate income taxes, payroll taxes, and excise taxes for different types of households, as well as all households as a group.

The federal, state, and local governments collected nearly $3.9 trillion in revenue in 2004, roughly one-third of GDP. Almost half that amount went to the federal government, which turned around and passed more than $400 billion on to state and local governments (90 percent to the states). For their part, the states brought in almost $1.2 trillion of their own revenue, 30 percent of which they passed on to local governments to help finance education and other activities. Finally, local governments used property taxes and other sources to collect nearly $800 billion.