Research by Author & Topic

Publications by Bowen Garrett on Health and Health Care

Congressional proposals health care reform proposals have differed in the premium rating rules that would be applied to non-elderly adults. Some have proposed allowing premiums for the older adults to be as much as 5 times as high as those for younger adults (5:1 rating), while others would limit the highest premiums to be twice that of the lowest (2:1 rating). This analysis uses the Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model (HIPSM) to compare the financial implications of the premium rating choice (5:1, 2:1, and 1:1) for households of different ages, incomes, and sizes.

This paper used the Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model to examine the impact on insurance coverage in government, employer, and family spending in all 50 states in absence of reform. In all states employer sponsored insurance would fall, and Medicaid enrollment and the number of uninsured would increase. Employer spending would increase despite drops in coverage. Government spending for public health insurance programs and for financing of uncompensated care would increase. The results differ among states depending on the distribution of employees by firm size and wage levels, the breadth of coverage in public programs and projected population growth.

In this analysis, a health reform scenario is modeled that would expand Medicaid to an estimated 17.0 million uninsured individuals with incomes up to 133 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL), would provide subsidies to 16.3 million uninsured individuals with incomes between 133 and 399 percent of the FPL, and would require an additional 4.3 million uninsured individuals to obtain coverage through an individual mandate, though they would not be eligible for Medicaid or subsidies. The first brief contains an overview of the entire nonelderly uninsured population, and the three remaining briefs address children, parents and childless adults, respectively.

Emotions are flaring as constituents speak their minds to members of Congress home for August recess. That's to be expected, since health care is both a personal and public issue, but let's not forget to debate the basics:

Under contract to the State of New York, researchers conducted in-depth micro-simulation analyses of four types of health care reforms being considered for state implementation: a single payer public health insurance option, Assembly Member Gottfried's New York Health Plus proposal that provides an option for all New Yorkers to enroll in Family Health plus, public-private hybrid options that simplify and expand existing public programs and reform private health insurance, and a market-based option that relies on regulatory flexibility and tax credits. The cost and coverage implications of state reform options falling into these four categories are presented in this report.

This report uses the Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model (HIPSM) to quantify the intermediate and longer-term implications if America’s health care system is not significantly overhauled. Under a range of economic scenarios, the analysis shows an increasing strain on business owners and their employees over the next decade if reform is not enacted. There would be a dramatic decline in the number of people insured through employers, and millions more could become uninsured. There would be large growth in Medicaid/CHIP enrollment and spending, and increased spending on uncompensated health care. Middle-income working families would be the most affected.

In 2004, 89.4 percent of uninsured children who qualified for Medicaid or the State Children's Health Insurance Program lived in families who filed federal income tax forms. This substantially exceeds the proportion of uninsured but eligible children who can be reached through many other outreach strategies. Federal lawmakers could cover uninsured children in these families by: (a) changing federal income tax forms so parents can identify their uninsured children and request coverage; (b) investing in information technology allowing data exchange between states and the Internal Revenue Service; and (c) letting states cover uninsured children if tax information shows they qualify.

In its June 2008 Report to Congress, the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC) recommended revision of the prospective payment system (PPS) for skilled nursing facilities (SNFs). The proposed revisions consist of a new component to pay for non-therapy ancillaries (NTA) based on predicted NTA costs, an alternative therapy component that bases therapy payments on predicted therapy needs, and addition of an outlier policy for the PPS. This technical report to MedPAC provides detail on the data, methods, and specific predictive models that underlie the analysis in the Report to Congress.

The Reinsurance Institute provided quantitative modeling and qualitative analysis to states as they explored reinsurance as an element of health reform. The project estimated the impacts of reinsurance, including changes in premiums, employer offer and enrollee take-up of coverage, numbers of people insured, and costs to the state. Small numbers of high spenders account for a large share of health spending, but most spending occurs in lower corridors of expense. Medical spending varies widely by age and health status, creating pressure for risk segmentation. Lastly, defining the eligible population determined whether reinsurance would cover new enrollees or solidify current coverage.

The Reinsurance Institute simulated the effects of reinsurance on individual and employer behavior, observing state-specific characteristics. We constructed a baseline database for each state by reweighting and combining multiple data sources to create a profile of individual-level demographics and health expenditures, allowing for the computation of individual-level premiums. We grouped health insurance units together into risk pools consistent with state market rules to calculate the change a reinsurance subsidy would have on the premium levels faced by individuals and employers. These price changes drove simulated changes in premium and coverage levels, offer and take-up rates, and state costs.