Research by Author & Topic

Publications by Eric Toder on Federal Budgets & Fiscal Policy

This report card evaluates the provisions of the Finance and Ways & Means Committees' conference tax stimulus bill (the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Tax Act of 2009"). The evaluation is preliminary and does not include all of the provisions in the bill most notably we omit provisions related to state and local debt and recovery zone credits. TPC will update the report card if significant changes occur before Congress passes the bill.

The Tax Policy Center has graded the key tax provisions of the pending Senate stimulus bill (the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Tax Plan of 2009"). Our grades, which rely on the bill's legislative language, focus on how well these measures would boost the economy in the short run. Accompanying write-ups describe current law, the proposed change, and the short- and long-term effects on the budget, the economy, fairness and tax complexity. We will update the report card as we learn more about the provisions and as the stimulus bill moves through Congress.

The Tax Policy Center has graded the key tax provisions of the pending House stimulus bill (the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Tax Plan of 2009"). Our grades, which rely on the bill's legislative language, focus on how well these measures would boost the economy in the short run. Accompanying write-ups describe current law, the proposed change, and the short- and long-term effects on the budget, the economy, fairness and tax complexity. We will update the report card as we learn more about the provisions and as the stimulus bill moves through Congress.

Analysts often add up tax expenditures to estimate an aggregate cost, but those tallies are inaccurate because they ignore interactions among provisions. We estimate that interactions raise the cost of nonbusiness tax expenditures by 5 to 8 percent, depending on whether an AMT patch is in effect. In 2007, these tax expenditures totaled about $750 billion—5.5 percent of GDP. While tax expenditures benefit taxpayers in all income groups, high-income households gain more relative to income than low-income ones. Although the AMT eliminates some tax preferences, it increases overall tax expenditures because most AMT taxpayers face higher marginal tax rates.

Increasing older people's employment rates could reduce the economic pressures of an aging population, and many older adults say they want to delay retirement. Yet, numerous public policies and private practices continue to encourage early retirement. The Urban Institute, with support from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, sponsored an October 2007 roundtable to examine the value of older adults' work. Researchers, practitioners, employers, and policymakers discussed the potential supply of and demand for older workers, the benefits of working longer, barriers to continued employment, and policy solutions to encourage work at older ages. This document summarizes the issues and discussion.

Not everyone pays every dollar owed the government or pays it on time. While stronger enforcement will help, it won't allow the next Congress and administration to avoid the hard budget decisions that expected future deficits will force them to make.

UI Senior Fellow Eric J.Toder talks about tax reform priorities, how the tax system can help promote social and economic goals, and whether tax law can be "environmentally friendly." Dr. Toder supervises studies on retirement and tax issues inthe Urban Institute's Income and Benefits Center and the Urban-BrookingsTax Policy Center. Before joining the Urban Institute, Dr. Toder held several policy advisory positions in the U.S. government and overseas, including Deputy Assistant Secretary for Tax Analysis at the U.S. Treasury Department and Director of the IRS Office of Research.

IRS recently estimated a gross tax gap of $345 billion, or 16 percent of tax liability, for tax year 2001. The gross tax gap is the difference between estimated tax liability in any year and the amount of tax that is paid voluntarily and on time. The tax gap could be reduced by expanding the scope of information reporting, as the current Administration and some Members of Congress have proposed, or increasing resources for IRS enforcement. Potential budgetary gains from these measures are modest, however, and will not enable politicians to avoid hard choices about future tax and spending levels.

Tax reform proposals include both restructuring of the tax system (such as replacing the income tax with a consumption tax or reforming taxation of foreign-source income) and cuts in targeted tax benefits that substitute for spending (such as tax benefits for home mortgage interest and employer paid health insurance). Criteria for analyzing tax reform and expenditure reduction differ. Tax expenditure lists provide useful measures of the costs of "backdoor" spending and departures from an ideal tax base, but have not succeeded in facilitating better choices between using the tax system or direct outlays to promote social and economic policy goals.

The United States raises less tax revenue as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) than most other countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In 2003, taxes in the United States, including all levels of government, amounted to 25.6 percent of GDP, compared with 33.9 percent for other countries in the Group of 7 (G7) and 34.7 percent for non-G7 OECD countries. The United States raises more personal income tax and property tax as a share of GDP than other OECD countries, but less corporate income tax, Social Security contributions, and taxes on goods and services.