Research by Author & Topic

Publications by Eric Toder on Economy

Urban Institute projections suggest the stock market collapse will have small effects on most Americans' retirement incomes. It's estimated that 37 percent of Americans born between 1941 and 1965 owned no stocks when the market crashed in 2008 and that income from assets will account for a small share of retirement income, even for those with stocks. For most retirees, Social Security provides the majority of income. Had Social Security been invested in private accounts with equities, the impact of the crash would have been much larger—positive or negative, depending on one's birth cohort and on future market performance.

This report compares projections of income and assets from the Model of Income in the Near Term (MINT) with data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), and the Current Population Survey (CPS). The comparison reveals a fair amount of variability in population characteristics and reported income and assets among these data files. There is no "right" answer, but rather a range of possible answers. For most statistics we compare, MINT's projected values fall between the highest and lowest values among the survey data.

Increasing older people's employment rates could reduce the economic pressures of an aging population, and many older adults say they want to delay retirement. Yet, numerous public policies and private practices continue to encourage early retirement. The Urban Institute, with support from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, sponsored an October 2007 roundtable to examine the value of older adults' work. Researchers, practitioners, employers, and policymakers discussed the potential supply of and demand for older workers, the benefits of working longer, barriers to continued employment, and policy solutions to encourage work at older ages. This document summarizes the issues and discussion.

Not everyone pays every dollar owed the government or pays it on time. While stronger enforcement will help, it won't allow the next Congress and administration to avoid the hard budget decisions that expected future deficits will force them to make.

UI Senior Fellow Eric J.Toder talks about tax reform priorities, how the tax system can help promote social and economic goals, and whether tax law can be "environmentally friendly." Dr. Toder supervises studies on retirement and tax issues inthe Urban Institute's Income and Benefits Center and the Urban-BrookingsTax Policy Center. Before joining the Urban Institute, Dr. Toder held several policy advisory positions in the U.S. government and overseas, including Deputy Assistant Secretary for Tax Analysis at the U.S. Treasury Department and Director of the IRS Office of Research.

IRS recently estimated a gross tax gap of $345 billion, or 16 percent of tax liability, for tax year 2001. The gross tax gap is the difference between estimated tax liability in any year and the amount of tax that is paid voluntarily and on time. The tax gap could be reduced by expanding the scope of information reporting, as the current Administration and some Members of Congress have proposed, or increasing resources for IRS enforcement. Potential budgetary gains from these measures are modest, however, and will not enable politicians to avoid hard choices about future tax and spending levels.

Individual taxpayers may claim some expenses (for example, mortgage interest, state and local taxes, and so on) as itemized deductions or claim a standard deduction. The standard deduction eliminates tax liability for many low-income filers and simplifies tax return preparation. Between 1995 and 2004, the share of itemizers increased from 29 percent to 35 percent. In addition, itemizers accounted for more than two-thirds of all adjusted gross income reported on tax returns and 80 percent of tax liability.

Tax reform proposals include both restructuring of the tax system (such as replacing the income tax with a consumption tax or reforming taxation of foreign-source income) and cuts in targeted tax benefits that substitute for spending (such as tax benefits for home mortgage interest and employer paid health insurance). Criteria for analyzing tax reform and expenditure reduction differ. Tax expenditure lists provide useful measures of the costs of "backdoor" spending and departures from an ideal tax base, but have not succeeded in facilitating better choices between using the tax system or direct outlays to promote social and economic policy goals.

The United States raises less tax revenue as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) than most other countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In 2003, taxes in the United States, including all levels of government, amounted to 25.6 percent of GDP, compared with 33.9 percent for other countries in the Group of 7 (G7) and 34.7 percent for non-G7 OECD countries. The United States raises more personal income tax and property tax as a share of GDP than other OECD countries, but less corporate income tax, Social Security contributions, and taxes on goods and services.

The federal income tax system has been used in a number of ways to promote favored forms of consumption and investment and to help selected groups of taxpayers. Since the mid-1980s, Congress has increasingly used the federal tax code to support social programs. This trend is likely to continue. We document provisions of the tax code that are aimed at low-income families including their history and recent changes. We also provide a review of literature surrounding the effect of these provisions. Finally, we discuss important differences in spending and tax programs. Understanding tax programs targeted toward low-income families is particularly important at a time when spending programs are being scaled back.