Research by Author & Topic

Publications by Eric Toder on Taxes and Social Programs

The House leadership has proposed to finance health care reform with a surtax on adjusted gross income (AGI) of high-income individuals, while the president's budget would increase the two top marginal tax rates on taxable income. Income taxed at statutory marginal rates is 58 percent of AGI for all taxpayers but only 46 percent of AGI for taxpayers with income over $1 million. While personal exemptions and deductions account for most of the difference between the two tax bases for the population as a whole, capital gains and qualified dividends make up most of the difference for very high income taxpayers.

The largest tax preferences for housing, health care, and retirement saving reduce federal revenues by about 3 percent of GDP. They raise after-tax income proportionally more for higher income groups than lower income groups, but raise income proportionately less for those at the very top. The net distributional effects depend on how these tax preferences are financed. If paid for with higher marginal tax rates, they benefit upper-middle income taxpayers at the expense of both lower-income and the highest-income taxpayers, but if paid for by lower per-capita spending, all high-income groups gain and all low-income groups lose.

Most advanced countries exempt returns to retirement saving from income tax, but private saving rates are falling and many people are saving too little for retirement. There is a trade-off between the goals of promoting wide participation in retirement saving plans and allowing more choice to employees. In the United States, purely employer funded plans have been replaced by plans that rely more on voluntary employee contributions, while private saving has declined. Two approaches that may promote more retirement saving are refundable tax credits for low-income workers and rules that encourage or require automatic enrollment in retirement saving plans.

This report card evaluates the provisions of the Finance and Ways & Means Committees' conference tax stimulus bill (the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Tax Act of 2009"). The evaluation is preliminary and does not include all of the provisions in the bill most notably we omit provisions related to state and local debt and recovery zone credits. TPC will update the report card if significant changes occur before Congress passes the bill.

The Tax Policy Center has graded the key tax provisions of the pending Senate stimulus bill (the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Tax Plan of 2009"). Our grades, which rely on the bill's legislative language, focus on how well these measures would boost the economy in the short run. Accompanying write-ups describe current law, the proposed change, and the short- and long-term effects on the budget, the economy, fairness and tax complexity. We will update the report card as we learn more about the provisions and as the stimulus bill moves through Congress.

The Tax Policy Center has graded the key tax provisions of the pending House stimulus bill (the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Tax Plan of 2009"). Our grades, which rely on the bill's legislative language, focus on how well these measures would boost the economy in the short run. Accompanying write-ups describe current law, the proposed change, and the short- and long-term effects on the budget, the economy, fairness and tax complexity. We will update the report card as we learn more about the provisions and as the stimulus bill moves through Congress.

Analysts often add up tax expenditures to estimate an aggregate cost, but those tallies are inaccurate because they ignore interactions among provisions. We estimate that interactions raise the cost of nonbusiness tax expenditures by 5 to 8 percent, depending on whether an AMT patch is in effect. In 2007, these tax expenditures totaled about $750 billion—5.5 percent of GDP. While tax expenditures benefit taxpayers in all income groups, high-income households gain more relative to income than low-income ones. Although the AMT eliminates some tax preferences, it increases overall tax expenditures because most AMT taxpayers face higher marginal tax rates.

Income tax provisions affect the buildup of retirement assets during workers' careers and after-tax income following retirement. This paper uses the Urban Institute's DYNASIM model to simulate how potential changes in the tax treatment of retirement saving, Social Security benefits, and income from assets outside retirement accounts may affect boomers' retirement incomes. Changes in the income thresholds for taxing Social Security benefits have the largest impact on middle-income boomers, while changes in contribution limits for retirement saving plans and tax rates on capital gains and dividends have the largest impact on the highest-income boomers.

UI Senior Fellow Eric J.Toder talks about tax reform priorities, how the tax system can help promote social and economic goals, and whether tax law can be "environmentally friendly." Dr. Toder supervises studies on retirement and tax issues inthe Urban Institute's Income and Benefits Center and the Urban-BrookingsTax Policy Center. Before joining the Urban Institute, Dr. Toder held several policy advisory positions in the U.S. government and overseas, including Deputy Assistant Secretary for Tax Analysis at the U.S. Treasury Department and Director of the IRS Office of Research.

KiwiSaver is a new saving incentive program in New Zealand that requires automatic enrollment of all new employees, with an option to opt out. KiwiSaver also subsidizes participation, but its subsidies are smaller than tax subsidies for saving in qualified retirement plans in the United States. Recent research shows that using automatic enrollment as a default rule substantially increases participation in retirement saving plans, but evidence on whether saving incentives plans increase net saving is mixed. KiwiSaver is the first large-scale test of whether default rules can be more effective than financial incentives in increasing retirement saving.