Research by Author & Topic

Publications by Eric Toder on Tax Distribution and Economic Trends

The House leadership has proposed to finance health care reform with a surtax on adjusted gross income (AGI) of high-income individuals, while the president's budget would increase the two top marginal tax rates on taxable income. Income taxed at statutory marginal rates is 58 percent of AGI for all taxpayers but only 46 percent of AGI for taxpayers with income over $1 million. While personal exemptions and deductions account for most of the difference between the two tax bases for the population as a whole, capital gains and qualified dividends make up most of the difference for very high income taxpayers.

The largest tax preferences for housing, health care, and retirement saving reduce federal revenues by about 3 percent of GDP. They raise after-tax income proportionally more for higher income groups than lower income groups, but raise income proportionately less for those at the very top. The net distributional effects depend on how these tax preferences are financed. If paid for with higher marginal tax rates, they benefit upper-middle income taxpayers at the expense of both lower-income and the highest-income taxpayers, but if paid for by lower per-capita spending, all high-income groups gain and all low-income groups lose.

This report card evaluates the provisions of the Finance and Ways & Means Committees' conference tax stimulus bill (the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Tax Act of 2009"). The evaluation is preliminary and does not include all of the provisions in the bill most notably we omit provisions related to state and local debt and recovery zone credits. TPC will update the report card if significant changes occur before Congress passes the bill.

The Tax Policy Center has graded the key tax provisions of the pending Senate stimulus bill (the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Tax Plan of 2009"). Our grades, which rely on the bill's legislative language, focus on how well these measures would boost the economy in the short run. Accompanying write-ups describe current law, the proposed change, and the short- and long-term effects on the budget, the economy, fairness and tax complexity. We will update the report card as we learn more about the provisions and as the stimulus bill moves through Congress.

The Tax Policy Center has graded the key tax provisions of the pending House stimulus bill (the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Tax Plan of 2009"). Our grades, which rely on the bill's legislative language, focus on how well these measures would boost the economy in the short run. Accompanying write-ups describe current law, the proposed change, and the short- and long-term effects on the budget, the economy, fairness and tax complexity. We will update the report card as we learn more about the provisions and as the stimulus bill moves through Congress.

Analysts often add up tax expenditures to estimate an aggregate cost, but those tallies are inaccurate because they ignore interactions among provisions. We estimate that interactions raise the cost of nonbusiness tax expenditures by 5 to 8 percent, depending on whether an AMT patch is in effect. In 2007, these tax expenditures totaled about $750 billion—5.5 percent of GDP. While tax expenditures benefit taxpayers in all income groups, high-income households gain more relative to income than low-income ones. Although the AMT eliminates some tax preferences, it increases overall tax expenditures because most AMT taxpayers face higher marginal tax rates.

Fewer than one in seven individual income taxpayers reported taxable capital gains in 2006. Over half of taxpayers with gains had incomes below $75,000, but most capital gains were reported by very high income taxpayers. The 3 percent of returns with AGI over $200,000 reported 31 percent of AGI and 83 percent of capital gains; the 0.3 percent with AGI over $1,000,000 reported 15 percent of AGI and 61 percent of capital gains. Many more Americans accrue capital gains on corporate shares they hold within tax-deferred employer-sponsored retirement plans, but they do not pay capital gains tax on these gains.

Small business is the source of our entrepreneurial genius, creativity, and productivity. Nonetheless, a substantial portion of our economic activity occurs within large corporations, non-profits and public enterprises. This paper discusses how the federal income tax treats firms of different sizes. It reviews specific provisions favoring small businesses and more general aspects of the federal income tax that may differentially affect firms of different sizes and also discusses how opportunities for tax avoidance and costs of complying with the tax law affect businesses of different size.

Corporations that are taxed under subchapter C of the Internal Revenue Code pay a separate entity-level tax on their income (the corporate income tax) and their owners pay additional tax on corporate dividends and capital gains on sales of corporate shares. Other businesses are taxed as flow-through entities; they file tax returns and report their income but do not pay an entity-level tax. This article discusses the decline in both the share of businesses organized as C corporations and their share of business receipts between 1994 and 2004.

Individual taxpayers may claim some expenses (for example, mortgage interest, state and local taxes, and so on) as itemized deductions or claim a standard deduction. The standard deduction eliminates tax liability for many low-income filers and simplifies tax return preparation. Between 1995 and 2004, the share of itemizers increased from 29 percent to 35 percent. In addition, itemizers accounted for more than two-thirds of all adjusted gross income reported on tax returns and 80 percent of tax liability.