Research by Author & Topic

Publications by Eric Toder on Tax Policy

President Obama's tax reform task force has been asked to propose ways to close the $300 billion tax gap, which is the estimated difference between taxes owed and taxes paid either voluntarily or through enforcement. But the amount of money lost to legal tax avoidance - the difference between an income tax without special tax preferences and taxes under current law - at least double that lost to outright evasion. The perpetrators of this second, "avoidance" tax gap are legislators, not taxpayers. The panel's main focus should be on finding appropriate ways to close this second tax gap.

Tax and fiscal policy will loom large in the next president's domestic policy agenda. Nearly all of the tax cuts enacted since 2001 expire at the end of 2010 and the individual alternative minimum tax (AMT) threatens to ensnare tens of millions of Americans. While a permanent fix palatable to both political parties has proven elusive, both candidates have proposed major tax changes. This report describes how we performed our modeling and analysis, outlines the major tax proposals, and discusses the implications of their policies for the revenue raised, taxpayer economic activity, and the distribution of the tax burden.

A tax code that is fair, simple, and conducive to economic growth is in the interest of all Americans and of all businesses, large and small. In this testimony, Toder addresses the ways in which the tax system affects companies organized as small businesses, compared with larger enterprises. He discusses provisions of the current tax law that affect the relative incentive to organize economic activity within smaller or larger business enterprises and between different forms of enterprises and outlines how selected tax reform proposals would affect those choices.

Not everyone pays every dollar owed the government or pays it on time. While stronger enforcement will help, it won't allow the next Congress and administration to avoid the hard budget decisions that expected future deficits will force them to make.

Income tax provisions affect the buildup of retirement assets during workers' careers and after-tax income following retirement. This paper uses the Urban Institute's DYNASIM model to simulate how potential changes in the tax treatment of retirement saving, Social Security benefits, and income from assets outside retirement accounts may affect boomers' retirement incomes. Changes in the income thresholds for taxing Social Security benefits have the largest impact on middle-income boomers, while changes in contribution limits for retirement saving plans and tax rates on capital gains and dividends have the largest impact on the highest-income boomers.

Small business is the source of our entrepreneurial genius, creativity, and productivity. Nonetheless, a substantial portion of our economic activity occurs within large corporations, non-profits and public enterprises. This paper discusses how the federal income tax treats firms of different sizes. It reviews specific provisions favoring small businesses and more general aspects of the federal income tax that may differentially affect firms of different sizes and also discusses how opportunities for tax avoidance and costs of complying with the tax law affect businesses of different size.

In this paper Toder addresses issues related to measurement of the tax gap—the difference between tax liability under the current Federal tax law and taxes paid. He discusses how the tax gap is defined, reviews the main components of the tax gap, and describes how the IRS estimates it, as well as some of the major methodological issues in and weaknesses of current estimates. Toder concludes with some brief observations on the use and potential misuse of tax gap estimates and how compliance data might lead to better tax law administration.

UI Senior Fellow Eric J.Toder talks about tax reform priorities, how the tax system can help promote social and economic goals, and whether tax law can be "environmentally friendly." Dr. Toder supervises studies on retirement and tax issues inthe Urban Institute's Income and Benefits Center and the Urban-BrookingsTax Policy Center. Before joining the Urban Institute, Dr. Toder held several policy advisory positions in the U.S. government and overseas, including Deputy Assistant Secretary for Tax Analysis at the U.S. Treasury Department and Director of the IRS Office of Research.

Corporations that are taxed under subchapter C of the Internal Revenue Code pay a separate entity-level tax on their income (the corporate income tax) and their owners pay additional tax on corporate dividends and capital gains on sales of corporate shares. Other businesses are taxed as flow-through entities; they file tax returns and report their income but do not pay an entity-level tax. This article discusses the decline in both the share of businesses organized as C corporations and their share of business receipts between 1994 and 2004.

IRS recently estimated a gross tax gap of $345 billion, or 16 percent of tax liability, for tax year 2001. The gross tax gap is the difference between estimated tax liability in any year and the amount of tax that is paid voluntarily and on time. The tax gap could be reduced by expanding the scope of information reporting, as the current Administration and some Members of Congress have proposed, or increasing resources for IRS enforcement. Potential budgetary gains from these measures are modest, however, and will not enable politicians to avoid hard choices about future tax and spending levels.