Research by Author & Topic

Publications by Avi Bhati on Crime Statistics

This report describes an information theoretic approach for estimating the number of crimes averted by incapacitation. It develops models of the criminal history accumulation process of a sample of individuals released from prison and uses the models to compute the number of crimes these individuals could reasonably have been expected to commit had they not been incarcerated. The models also afford the opportunity to conduct a limited set of policy simulations. Although a fair amount of heterogeneity is found among individuals, estimates do not vary sufficiently by gender, race or ethnicity. Variations across states and offense types are more pronounced.

Agricultural crime, including theft of farming-related commodities, supplies, and equipment, causes billions of dollars of losses each year to farmers, insurers, and consumers. Drawing on analyses of law enforcement, farm survey, site visit, and interview data, the Urban Institute and Florida State University evaluated the theory and impacts of a promising initiative in California—the Agricultural Crime, Technology, Information, and Operations Network (ACTION) project—aimed at addressing this problem. ACTION collects and analyzes agricultural crime data; encourages and enables information-sharing among law enforcement agencies and prosecutors within and across counties; educates the public and farmers about agricultural crime and how to combat it; marks equipment with owner applied numbers (OANs); and promotes aggressive law enforcement and prosecution. ACTION's activities appear to have reduced victimization and to have increased agricultural crime arrests and prosecutions, recovery of stolen property, and farmers' investment in crime prevention. This report describes the study and findings in detail.

Agricultural crime, including theft of farming-related commodities, supplies, and equipment, causes billions of dollars of losses each year to farmers, insurers, and consumers. Drawing on analyses of law enforcement, farm survey, site visit, and interview data, the Urban Institute and Florida State University evaluated the theory and impacts of a promising initiative in California—the Agricultural Crime, Technology, Information, and Operations Network (ACTION) project—aimed at addressing this problem. ACTION collects and analyzes agricultural crime data; encourages and enables information-sharing among law enforcement agencies and prosecutors within and across counties; educates the public and farmers about agricultural crime and how to combat it; marks equipment with owner applied numbers (OANs); and promotes aggressive law enforcement and prosecution. ACTION's activities appear to have reduced victimization and to have increased agricultural crime arrests and prosecutions, recovery of stolen property, and farmers' investment in crime prevention. This policy brief summarizes the study's key findings and its policy, theory, and research recommendations.

Most prisoners released in the United States are subject to community supervision, often called "parole." But little is known about whether parole increases public safety outcomes or improves reentry transitions. This study compares prisoners released to supervision—via mandatory and discretionary release—with prisoners released unconditionally. Bureau of Justice Statistics data on 38,624 state prisoners released in 1994 from 15 states are analyzed, along with the differences between these groups and their rearrest rates. [View the corresponding press release]

This report describes a semi-parametric information-theoretic framework for modeling the determinants of rare events aggregated at intra-city areal units. It is used to study the effects of socio-economic and demographic characteristics of communities on the amount of violence they experience. Findings suggest some instability in the processes across types of violence and level of aggregation but also a stable predictor—resource depravation—for all the types of violence. Evidence of a spillover effect of a community's resource depravation on violence in its neighboring areas is also found. Findings are discussed in light of their substantive, methodological, and practical implications.

Third in an annual series, this report provides statistics that describe defendants processed at different stages of the Federal criminal justice system for the 12-month period ending September 30, 2000. The data presented are compiled from the Bureau of Justice Statistics' Federal justice database which is maintained by the Urban Institute for the U.S. Department of Justice.