Citation URL: http://www.urban.org/HowardIams

This analysis assesses the role of Social Security and Supplementary Security Income (SSI) in the economic well-being of baby-boomer retirees and their predecessors. The results suggest that, similar to current retirees, Social Security will account for about two-fifths of projected income for baby-boomer retirees. On average, SSI will contribute almost nothing to total income and will be received by fewer baby-boomer retirees than current retirees. Although baby boomers can expect higher incomes and lower poverty rates at retirement than current retirees have, they can also expect lower replacement rates. The decline in replacement rates is driven, in part, by a decline in Social Security replacement rates.

Using the Social Security Administration's Model of Income in the Near Term (MINT), this paper compares the retirement prospects of baby boomer retirees with previous generations. In absolute terms, measured by per capita income and poverty rates, baby boomers are projected to be better off than current retirees. In relative terms, however, many baby boomers will be worse off than current retirees. First, the relative ranking of important subgroups is expected to change over time. Second, baby boomers are less likely than current retirees to have enough post-retirement income to maintain their pre-retirement living standards. These findings hold up to various definitions of family income and replacement rates.

This paper presents alternative measures of actual and projected net benefits (benefits minus payroll taxes) from the Old and Survivor’s Insurance (OASI) component of Social Security, based on results from a microsimulation model. The simulations take into account marital histories, income, and tax-burden sharing within couples and differences in life expectancy among sub-groups of the population. We find that OASI is becoming more redistributive towards lower income groups over time, even as net benefits decline, mostly because of changing demographics and earnings patterns of the workforce.

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