Citation URL: http://www.urban.org/DianeLimRogers

Those in favor of permanent estate tax repeal talk of the need to eliminate the "death tax," but only 1 in 200 deaths will actually result in estate tax liability this year, and only 1 in 300 by 2009. Estate tax relief benefits the very few richest households, yet imposes the tremendous and unavoidable cost of a higher federal debt--a "birth tax"--on all Americans.

With tax-filing upon us, many people, ordinary citizens and politicians alike, complain of how high Americans' tax burdens are. President Bush recently used his radio address to say that, as Americans are finishing up their tax returns, they should be reminded of the need to make the 2001-03 tax cuts permanent. Left unsaid, though, is that even with our imperfect tax system, the revenues provided by taxes strengthen, not weaken, our nation's economy.

This paper discusses how state income taxes and sales taxes affect the working poor. While some states impose substantial burdens through income taxes with low thresholds and/or sales taxes that do not exempt necessities, others provide generous subsidies through refundable earned income tax credits similar to the federal earned income tax credit. A few states go beyond the federal model and also provide refundable child care credits. In evaluating the role of tax policy to assist low-income people, policymakers need to study the incentives and disincentives associated with various features of the tax system.

The retirement of baby boomers and the increase in the share of elderly in the population will create economic and fiscal stresses beginning in the second decade of the 21st century. These demographic developments, if not offset by changes in household behavior and government fiscal policy, will reduce the number of workers in relation to the population needing support and lower the national saving rate. The result will be slower growth in national income and consumption after 2010.

Policymakers need to understand how Social Security reforms affect income distribution. Existing models range from simple representations of career earnings of typical workers to complex general equilibrium models. Population micro-simulation models, which project the earnings, wealth, and demographic histories of a representative sample of families, are useful for simulating many reform proposals. This report evaluates one such model - the projected cohorts model - and then discusses in detail three important issues in model development: 1) representing saving behavior, 2) capturing macro-economic effects, and 3) accounting for risk and uncertainty.

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